Arsenal v Chelsea: Betting Tips & Odds
Premier League, Matchweek 3 | Emirates Stadium, London | Sunday 6 September 2026, 16:30 BST
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Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Arsenal to win | 4/7 |
| Value Tip | Both teams to score – Yes | 4/5 |
| Correct Score | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | 8/1 |
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 25/34 won |
| Value | 25/34 won |
| Bet Builder | 17/34 won |
| Correct Score | 5/34 won |
Win Percentage: 52.9% | ROI: +15.4%
A strong week overall, with 25 of 34 main tips landing and a positive ROI of +15.4%. The highlight was five correct scores nailed exactly, but the week also delivered a couple of big setbacks in the headline leagues.
Read the full analysis and results for 24-31 August here.
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Results 21-31 August (the full transition period)
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 31/44 won |
| Value | 31/44 won |
| Bet Builder | 22/44 won |
| Correct Score | 6/44 won |
Win Percentage: 51.1%
Combining Gameweek 1 with the new multi-league format’s first week brings the overall win percentage to 51.1%.
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
All five legs of last week’s accumulator won: Monaco won (Ligue 1), Atlético Madrid won (La Liga), Elfsborg won (Allsvenskan), Leipzig won (Bundesliga), and PSV won (Eredivisie). A perfect 5/5 record delivered the full combined odds of roughly 18/1 – a £10 stake would have returned around £190.
Full Time Result & Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4/7 |
| Draw | 11/4 |
| Chelsea | 17/4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1/1 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/5 |
| Both teams to score – No | 19/20 |
Arsenal go into the first London derby of the season as clear favourites at 4/7, with Chelsea out at 17/4, longer than the draw. Both sides arrive on excellent recent form, which makes the pricing more about home advantage and a strong recent head-to-head record than one team being in noticeably worse shape than the other.
Value Calculator
Here’s how some of the more specific markets compare to our own read of the game.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win | 4/7 | 63.7% | 58% | -5.7% |
| Draw | 11/4 | 26.7% | 24% | -2.7% |
| Chelsea to win | 17/4 | 19.0% | 18% | -1.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 55.6% | 60% | +4.4% |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/5 | 55.6% | 62% | +6.4% STRONGEST |
Market probability: Arsenal 58% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 17% (calculated from the 1X2 odds, with the bookmaker’s margin removed)
The clearest signal in the match is the goals market rather than the result itself. Both teams have been scoring and conceding freely in their recent matches, which makes Both Teams To Score the area where we see the most value.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Arsenal to win @ 4/7
- Arsenal have won four of the last five meetings between these two sides, with the solitary exception a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in November 2025
- Arsenal have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, with the only defeat coming against Borussia Dortmund in a pre-season friendly
- Chelsea are just as much in form, having won four of their own last five, but three of those wins came away from the Emirates and none have come against Arsenal recently
The recent head-to-head record is about as one-sided as these fixtures get: Arsenal have won three of the last three meetings specifically at home or in cup ties they’ve hosted, and haven’t lost to Chelsea since March 2025. Both teams arrive in good form, which is why this isn’t rated a maximum-confidence pick, but the home record in this specific fixture is hard to ignore.
Odds disclaimer: all odds were correct at the time of publication and may have changed.
Value Tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 4/5
- Chelsea have scored in four of their last five matches, including four goals against Brighton and three against Fulham
- Arsenal have found the net in four of their last five, with only the Coventry City win (3-0) coming with a clean sheet at the other end
- Neither side has been especially miserly defensively in their recent matches, despite both winning regularly
With both attacks firing and neither defence keeping things especially tight in recent weeks, Both Teams To Score at 4/5 looks like a safer read of the game than trying to call a low-scoring, one-sided result.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: We’re leaning toward a tight match with goals at both ends, with Arsenal edging it at home by the smallest possible margin rather than a comfortable win.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal to win | 4/7 |
| 2 | Both teams to score – Yes | 4/5 |
| Combined (verified) | 11/4 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This combination captures a scenario where Arsenal win an open game rather than shutting it down defensively, which fits the picture of two teams that are both scoring and conceding regularly right now. The verified combined price of 11/4 is shorter than a naive multiplication of the two legs (4/7 and 4/5) would suggest, a reminder that Bet Builder pricing isn’t simply the two prices multiplied together.
Team News
Arsenal
Arsenal come into the match on the back of a 1-0 win at Aston Villa, their fourth win in five matches across all competitions. The reigning champions beat Coventry City 3-0 and Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield either side of a penalty shootout win over Como in a pre-season friendly, with their only defeat in that run coming against Borussia Dortmund at the Emirates Cup.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Raya; White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Ødegaard, Tzolis; Havertz.
Chelsea
Chelsea arrive full of confidence after a wild 4-3 win over Brighton, their fourth win in five matches in all competitions, having also beaten Luton in the League Cup and come from behind to win at Fulham. Their only blemish in that run was a 3-3 draw with Johor Darul Ta’zim in a pre-season friendly.
Predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Martínez; Colwill, Hato, Lacroix; Gusto, Fofana, Lavia, Neto; Rogers, Palmer; João Pedro.
Predicted lineups are unconfirmed and may change before kick-off.
Recent Form
Arsenal
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 1-0 | Aston Villa (A) | Premier League |
| W 3-0 | Coventry City (H) | Premier League |
| W 3-0 | Manchester City (N) | Community Shield |
| W 1-1 (4-3 pens) | Como (N) | Friendly |
| L 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | Emirates Cup |
Four wins from five, with the only defeat coming in a pre-season friendly against Borussia Dortmund. Arsenal have kept things tight defensively in both competitive league matches so far this season.
Chelsea
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 4-3 | Brighton (H) | Premier League |
| W 2-0 | Luton Town (H) | League Cup |
| W 3-2 | Fulham (A) | Premier League |
| W 3-1 | Real Sociedad (H) | Friendly |
| D 3-3 | Johor Darul Ta’zim (A) | Friendly |
Four wins from five in all competitions, with Chelsea showing they can win from behind at Fulham as well as in an entertaining shootout with Brighton.
Arsenal v Chelsea: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 March 2026 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 2-1 |
| 3 February 2026 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 1-0 |
| 14 January 2026 | Chelsea v Arsenal | 2-3 |
| 30 November 2025 | Chelsea v Arsenal | 1-1 |
| 16 March 2025 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 1-0 |
Arsenal have won four of the last five meetings between these two sides, with the only blemish a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in November 2025. Chelsea haven’t beaten Arsenal in any of their last five attempts in any competition.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in Arsenal v Chelsea?
Arsenal are favourites at home at 4/7. Chelsea are priced at 17/4, with the draw at 11/4.
What is the prediction for Arsenal v Chelsea?
Our main tip is Arsenal to win at 4/7, with Both Teams To Score – Yes as our value pick at 4/5. We expect a tight match with goals at both ends, with Arsenal winning by the smallest margin.
When is Arsenal v Chelsea?
Sunday 6 September 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, at the Emirates Stadium in London.
How have both teams got on recently?
Both teams are in excellent form. Arsenal have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, with the only defeat a pre-season friendly loss to Borussia Dortmund. Chelsea have also won four of their last five, including a 4-3 thriller against Brighton.
What do the recent head-to-head meetings show?
Arsenal have won four of the last five meetings between the two sides, with Chelsea’s only positive result a 1-1 draw in November 2025. Chelsea haven’t beaten Arsenal in any competition since March 2025.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub.
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