Liverpool v Atlético Madrid: Betting Tips & Odds
Champions League, League Phase, Matchday 1 | Anfield, Liverpool | Wednesday 9 September 2026, 20:00 BST
Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Liverpool to win | 5/7 |
| Value Tip | Both teams to score – Yes | 4/6 |
| Correct Score | Liverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid | 15/2 |
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 25/34 won |
| Value | 25/34 won |
| Bet Builder | 17/34 won |
| Correct Score | 5/34 won |
Win Percentage: 52.9% | ROI: +15.4%
A strong week overall, with 25 of 34 main tips landing and a positive ROI of +15.4%. The highlight was five correct scores nailed exactly, but the week also delivered a couple of big setbacks in the headline leagues.
Read the full analysis and results for 24-31 August here.
Results 21-31 August (the full transition period)
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 31/44 won |
| Value | 31/44 won |
| Bet Builder | 22/44 won |
| Correct Score | 6/44 won |
Win Percentage: 51.1%
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This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
All five legs of last week’s accumulator won: Monaco won (Ligue 1), Atlético Madrid won (La Liga), Elfsborg won (Allsvenskan), Leipzig won (Bundesliga), and PSV won (Eredivisie). A perfect 5/5 record delivered the full combined odds of roughly 18/1.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Aston Villa v Arsenal: the main tip landed. Arsenal won 1-0 through a Bukayo Saka goal, exactly as backed. Read the full tip here.
Full Time Result & Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5/7 |
| Draw | 3/1 |
| Atlético Madrid | 7/2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 6/5 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/6 |
| Both teams to score – No | 11/10 |
Liverpool are favourites at home in Anfield at 5/7, while Atlético Madrid are out at 7/2 for an away win. The goals market is unusually clear: both Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score – Yes are priced at exactly the same level (4/6), pointing toward an open match with goals at both ends.
Value Calculator
Here’s how some of the more specific markets compare to our own read of the game.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 5/7 | 58.8% | 55% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 3/1 | 25.0% | 24% | -1.0% |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 7/2 | 22.2% | 21% | -1.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 | 59.9% | 63% | +3.1% |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/6 | 59.9% | 64% | +4.1% STRONGEST |
Market probability: Liverpool 55% | Draw 24% | Atlético Madrid 21% (calculated from the 1X2 odds, with the bookmaker’s margin removed)
Liverpool arrive off the back of two straight high-scoring draws in the Premier League (against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle), while Atlético Madrid are in noticeably better form following a 3-1 away win at Sevilla in their last league match. That makes the goals market more interesting than a straightforward home performance: both sides have shown they can score recently.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Liverpool to win @ 5/7
- Liverpool have won three of the last five meetings with Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, with Atlético winning two
- Liverpool arrive off the back of two straight draws in the Premier League, while Atlético Madrid won their last league match 3-1 away at Sevilla
- Anfield on a Champions League night is historically one of the toughest environments in European football for away sides
The form picture isn’t quite as one-sided as the odds suggest, with Liverpool in a slight dip and Atlético Madrid on the up. Home advantage at Anfield and an overall positive record in the head-to-head still make the main tip a reasonable choice, though not one for maximum confidence.
Odds disclaimer: all odds were correct at the time of publication and may have changed.
Value Tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 4/6
- Liverpool have scored in almost all of their recent matches, including both of their last two draws in the Premier League
- Atlético Madrid have scored in four of their last five matches, with three goals in their most recent league win over Sevilla
- The last five meetings between these two sides have been notably high-scoring, averaging over three goals per game
With both teams finding the net consistently, and a history of open meetings between these two specific clubs in the Champions League, Both Teams To Score looks like one of the safest markets of the week.
Odds disclaimer: all odds were correct at the time of publication and may have changed.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid. A scenario that reflects both the main tip and the value tip, with the home side winning an open game rather than controlling it defensively.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool to win | 5/7 |
| 2 | Both teams to score – Yes | 4/6 |
| Combined | – |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This combination captures a scenario where Liverpool win an open game with goals at both ends rather than a sterile home performance, which fits the picture of two teams that have scored regularly of late. The real combined price should always be checked on your own bookmaker’s app before betting.
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Team News
Liverpool
Liverpool open their Champions League season at home in Anfield following a slightly mixed spell, with two straight high-scoring draws in the Premier League against Nottingham Forest (2-2) and Newcastle (2-2). The side have also split results in pre-season friendlies against Como, with a win and a draw, plus a defeat to Monaco.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Frimpong, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Wirtz, Gakpo, Muñoz; Isak.
⚠️ Predicted lineups are unconfirmed and may change before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid travel to Anfield in noticeably better form than their opponents, with a 3-1 away win over Sevilla in their last league match following a 2-2 draw with Villarreal and a 2-0 win over Málaga. The side lost their last friendly against Manchester City but had previously beaten Marseille.
Predicted lineup (4-4-2): Oblak; Pubill, Hjulmand, Hancko, Grimaldo; Lee, Barrios, Baena, Lookman; Simeone, Llorente.
⚠️ Predicted lineups are unconfirmed and may change before kick-off.
Recent Form
Liverpool
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| D 2-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | Premier League |
| D 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | Premier League |
| W 2-0 | Como (H) | Friendly |
| D 0-0 | Como (H) | Friendly |
| L 2-3 | Monaco (H) | Friendly |
Two straight high-scoring draws in the Premier League follow a mixed pre-season, in which Liverpool both won and drew against Como before losing to Monaco.
Atlético Madrid
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 3-1 | Sevilla (A) | La Liga |
| D 2-2 | Villarreal (H) | La Liga |
| W 2-0 | Málaga (H) | La Liga |
| W 2-1 | Marseille (A) | Friendly |
| L 1-3 | Manchester City (A) | Friendly |
Three wins and a draw in their last four competitive matches in La Liga, with the friendly defeat to Manchester City the only blemish.
Liverpool v Atlético Madrid: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 17 September 2025 | Liverpool v Atlético Madrid (CL) | 3-2 |
| 3 November 2021 | Liverpool v Atlético Madrid (CL) | 2-0 |
| 19 October 2021 | Atlético Madrid v Liverpool (CL) | 2-3 |
| 11 March 2020 | Liverpool v Atlético Madrid (CL, AET) | 2-3 |
| 18 February 2020 | Atlético Madrid v Liverpool (CL) | 1-0 |
Liverpool have won three of the last five meetings against Atlético Madrid, all in the Champions League, with an aggregate goal difference of 10-8 in the Reds’ favour. Matches between these two sides have historically been notably dramatic and high-scoring, including the legendary 3-2 comeback at Anfield in last season’s group stage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in Liverpool v Atlético Madrid? Liverpool are favourites at home at 5/7. Atlético Madrid are priced at 7/2, with the draw at 3/1.
What is the prediction for Liverpool v Atlético Madrid? Our main tip is Liverpool to win at 5/7. The value tip is Both Teams To Score at 4/6. We expect Liverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid.
When is Liverpool v Atlético Madrid? Wednesday 9 September 2026, kick-off 20:00 BST, at Anfield in Liverpool, for Matchday 1 of the new Champions League league phase.
How have both teams got on recently? Liverpool come into this off two straight draws in the Premier League. Atlético Madrid are in better form, with a 3-1 away win over Sevilla in their last league match.
What do the recent meetings between Liverpool and Atlético Madrid show? Liverpool have won three of the last five meetings, all in the Champions League, with an aggregate goal difference of 10-8. The most recent meeting, in September 2025, finished 3-2 to Liverpool.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub.
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