Norway vs England Betting Tips World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final
Quarter-Final | Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium), Miami Gardens, Florida | Saturday 11 July 2026, 22:00 BST
Our Best Bets
Both Teams to Score
Kane Anytime Scorer
Our Top Tips & Odds
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main tip | Both teams to score | 4/5 |
| Value bet | Kane anytime scorer | 6/4 |
| Correct score | England 2-1 | 7/1 |
Last Week’s Results
Last week’s tips (29 Jun – 04 Jul)
- Main tips: 10/12 won
- Value tips: 8/12 won
- Bet Builders: 5/12 won
- Correct scores: 4/12 exact
- Win rate: 63.9%
- ROI: +62.7%
Read the full Round of 32 weekly recap
Value Calculator
| Market | Odds | Implied % | My estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 4/5 | 55.6% | 65% | +9.4% |
| Kane anytime scorer | 6/4 | 40.0% | 52% | +12.0% |
| Haaland anytime scorer | 4/7 | 63.7% | 72% | +8.3% |
Both teams to score is the standout market: Norway have both scored and conceded in all five of their World Cup matches, and England scored in every game while conceding in four of five. The 4/5 implied probability of 55.6% is too conservative for a match-up between two of the tournament’s most prolific attacking sides. Kane at 6/4 (implied 40%) is the most undervalued individual market: he has scored six World Cup goals, netted in 11 of his last 12 knockout matches at major tournaments, and arrives in form that the market has not fully priced.
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds (ca.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland anytime scorer | 4/7 |
| 2 | Both teams to score | 4/5 |
| 3 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/4 |
| Combined | ca. 5/2 |
Bet Builder confidence: Medium (3/5)
All three legs are positively correlated. A match where Haaland scores almost certainly involves Norway finding the net , which overlaps with BTTS and drives the total above 2.5. An England 2-1 or Norway 2-1 scoreline lands all three simultaneously and is precisely the scenario the correct score models. The main risk is this becoming a defensively cautious, low-scoring affair , England’s 33.2% possession against Mexico (their lowest on Opta record) shows they can absorb pressure, and if Tuchel sets up deep with Quansah absent, Norway may find fewer gaps than against Brazil. The 3/5 confidence reflects genuine tactical uncertainty.
Tip 1: Both Teams to Score @ 4/5
- Norway have both scored AND conceded in every single one of their five World Cup matches this tournament, without exception
- England scored in every World Cup game and conceded in four of five, letting in two against Mexico, one against DR Congo, and one against their group opponents
- Harry Kane has scored in six of England’s five World Cup games and Haaland has scored in all five of Norway’s, making scoreless attackers on either side a statistical outlier
At 4/5 (implied 55.6%) the market is treating this as a coin-flip question about whether both teams score. The underlying numbers disagree sharply. Norway have not kept a clean sheet in any of their five World Cup games, allowing goals to Iraq (4-1), Senegal (late), France (4-1 loss), Ivory Coast (2-1) and Brazil (2-1 win). They are dangerous going forward but consistently porous at the back. Both teams have both scored and conceded in each of their five respective World Cup matches, a pattern that the 4/5 price fails to adequately reflect.
England’s defensive record is more mixed: two clean sheets in five games but three occasions when opponents found the net. Quansah’s suspension for this match removes one of Tuchel’s preferred options at centre-back, which could leave England slightly more exposed against Haaland’s aerial and physical threat than they would be otherwise. The combination of Norway’s attacking output , seven goals, led by Haaland’s brace against Brazil , and England’s tendency to concede even when winning makes BTTS the single most reliable market in this tie.
The counter-argument: both managers may set up to avoid being the team that concedes first. England have shown they can control matches from a defensive posture when needed, and if Tuchel deploys a deep 5-4-1 to counter Haaland’s danger, Norway may find the central channels blocked. That scenario , a 1-0 England win , remains possible but is inconsistent with Norway’s ability to create in every match they’ve played.
At 4/5 (implied 55.6%) against an estimate of 65%, the 9.4-point gap is the clearest edge on this match’s board.
Odds correct at time of publication. Always check current prices before placing. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Help is available at begambleaware.org.
Tip 2: Value Bet: Kane Anytime Scorer @ 6/4
- Six World Cup goals in five games, only the third England player to score six in a major tournament after Gary Lineker (1986 World Cup) and Kane himself (2018 World Cup)
- 11 goals in his last 12 knockout matches at major tournaments , a record that underlines his clinical conversion in high-pressure games
- Kane has scored two penalties at this World Cup, the most clinical dead-ball specialist remaining in the competition , and Norway commit fouls in dangerous areas under Haaland-related defensive attention
Harry Kane at 6/4 is the most structurally mispriced market in this quarter-final. The implied probability of 40% is dramatically out of step with his tournament record: six goals in five games, 11 goals in his last 12 knockout appearances at major tournaments, and a relentless ability to generate chances from central positions regardless of how the game unfolds around him. Jordan Pickford is set to become England’s all-time leading appearance maker at the World Cup in this match, overtaking Peter Shilton’s record of 17 games, and he has provided the platform that allows England to channel the ball through Kane.
Norway’s defensive setup will be tested throughout. Without the presence of Quansah in England’s back line, their defensive structure shifts slightly, which may lead Tuchel to deploy a more cautious shape. But that changes nothing about Kane’s role: he will occupy the central area, create separation with his movement, and convert the chances that England’s system generates, regardless of the overall defensive setup.
The risk: Norway defend well when organised. Against Brazil, they conceded just one goal from a penalty and limited the five-time champions to peripheral chances for long stretches. Haaland’s physical presence demands defender attention, and if Norway’s backline focuses two defenders on Kane whenever England get into the box, his involvement in goal situations reduces. That is a genuine constraint at 6/4.
At 6/4 (implied 40.0%) against an estimate of 52%, the 12.0-point gap is the largest individual edge on the board.
Prediction
England 2-1 @ 7/1
This is the quarter-final that nobody wanted to play in for fear of the opponent: two sides built around generational strikers, both capable of winning on their own terms. England have the depth, the structure and the experience at this stage. Haaland scores , he always does , but Kane delivers twice and England advance. England 2-1 lands Both Teams to Score, Kane as a scorer, Over 2.5 and all Bet Builder legs simultaneously at a 7/1 return.
Norway vs England: Match Preview
| Norway | England | |
|---|---|---|
| World ranking | 9 | 5 |
| Coach | Ståle Solbakken | Thomas Tuchel |
| System | 4-3-3 / 4-4-2 | 4-2-3-1 |
| Goals scored (WC 2026) | 12 | 10 |
| Goals conceded (WC 2026) | 9 | 5 |
| Key player | Erling Haaland (7 goals) | Harry Kane (6 goals) |
| Context | First-ever WC quarter-final | 11th WC quarter-final , only Brazil and Germany have more |
England Team News
England face a significant defensive disruption. Jarrell Quansah was sent off against Mexico and serves a one-match suspension for this quarter-final, meaning Tuchel must reshuffle his centre-back options. John Stones and Marc Guehi are expected to partner in the middle. Reece James remains a doubt with an injury he has been carrying but has not been ruled out. Trent Alexander-Arnold may continue at right-back if James cannot start.
Jude Bellingham starts after his decisive two-goal cameo against Mexico , both goals coming within 98 seconds, the fastest brace by any England player in World Cup history. Declan Rice was booked after just 56 seconds against Mexico, accumulating a yellow card, but is available here. Bukayo Saka continues on the right. Kane leads the line with six World Cup goals and 11 in his last 12 knockout matches at major tournaments.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Stones, Guehi, Shaw; Rice, Mainoo; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane.
Lineups are unconfirmed and subject to late changes. Quansah is suspended; James is a doubt.
Norway Team News
Norway are effectively at full strength after Haaland’s brace against Brazil with no new injury concerns reported. Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last 14 competitive international appearances for Norway, netting 27 goals across that run. He is the first Norway player ever to score two goals in a knockout match at a major international tournament.
Martin Ødegaard, whose seven qualifying assists were the most of any European player, starts in the attacking midfield role. Julian Ryerson was a doubt against Brazil but played and should continue at right-back. Alexander Sørloth is the expected partner for Haaland, having had a goal disallowed against Brazil for offside. Patrick Berg anchors the midfield with Sander Berge alongside him.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Hanche-Olsen, Østigård, Meling; Berg, Ødegaard, Thorstvedt; Nusa, Haaland, Sørloth.
Lineups are unconfirmed and subject to late changes.
Norway vs England: Form (Last 5)
Norway
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 2-1 | Brazil | World Cup R16 |
| W 2-1 | Ivory Coast | World Cup R32 |
| L 1-4 | France | World Cup Group I |
| W 2-1 | Senegal | World Cup Group I |
| W 4-1 | Iraq | World Cup Group I |
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
England
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 3-2 | Mexico | World Cup R16 |
| W 2-1 | DR Congo | World Cup R32 |
| D 0-0 | Turkey | World Cup Group L |
| W 3-0 | Panama | World Cup Group L |
| W 2-0 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | World Cup Group L |
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Key Stats
Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last 14 competitive international appearances for Norway, netting 27 goals across this run. He has already scored four match-winning goals at this World Cup , only Poland’s Grzegorz Lato in 1974 and Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 managed more match-winning goals in a single World Cup campaign in the competition’s history.
Harry Kane has scored two penalties at this World Cup, contributing to his six total goals and underlining his record as the leading penalty scorer in World Cup knockout history. He has six tournament goals in total and has scored in 11 of his last 12 knockout matches at major tournaments.
Norway have both scored and conceded in all five of their World Cup games, making them the most consistently open attacking-and-defensive team in the tournament. The only side to reach the semi-finals while both scoring and conceding 10+ goals in the tournament was Germany in 1954.
Jude Bellingham has scored four goals at a World Cup for England, the first England midfielder to do so. His 33.3% shot conversion rate is the highest of any England midfielder to attempt more than three shots at a World Cup on Opta record since 1966.
Head-to-Head
England and Norway have met 23 times in competitive and friendly fixtures. England lead the all-time record but Norway produced one of the great upsets of 1981 with a 2-1 win in Oslo at Ullevaal Stadion that sparked one of Norwegian football commentary’s most celebrated moments. The two sides have not met in a competitive international fixture since a 2014 friendly. This is their first competitive meeting in over 20 years. For all our quarter-final coverage, see the full World Cup 2026 predictions hub.
Explore our World Cup 2026 betting guide for tips on all remaining quarter-finals.
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Coach Profiles
Thomas Tuchel is in his second year as England manager after taking over from Southgate following Euro 2024. He has steered England to a third consecutive World Cup quarter-final with a squad that blends experienced internationals with the next generation. His tactical discipline , England had 33.2% possession against Mexico, their lowest on Opta record since 1966 , shows a manager comfortable sacrificing possession for structural stability.
Ståle Solbakken has transformed Norwegian football. He won all ten qualifying matches and arrives at this World Cup as the coach of the most-anticipated Norwegian generation in history. His decision to build the entire system around Haaland without making it one-dimensional , Ødegaard’s movement, Nusa’s pace, Sørloth’s physicality , has produced the most balanced Norwegian squad ever assembled.
Norway vs England: Match Analysis
The tactical battle at the core of this match is England’s defensive organisation against Norway’s relentless Haaland-anchored attack. Tuchel’s England are pragmatic: they accept low possession and trust their defensive shape, midfield press and counter-attacking quality to create chances from limited opportunities. Against Mexico, they scored three goals from limited possession, with Bellingham’s brace coming from a team move that required only five passes.
The Quansah suspension is the central tactical problem for England. The Liverpool defender was sent off for a challenge on a Mexican forward and his absence creates a gap in centre-back combinations that Tuchel has to solve with players who have less familiarity at this level. John Stones and Marc Guehi are the likely pairing, and both are technically accomplished, but their aerial duel record against a striker of Haaland’s physicality will be tested throughout.
Norway’s attacking system is built around creating situations where Haaland receives the ball in the box. Ødegaard’s delivery from midfield, Nusa’s direct runs from the right, and Sørloth’s ability to occupy a second defender all exist to free Haaland in his optimal areas. The decisive question is whether England’s reorganised centre-back pairing can handle Haaland at set-pieces, where Norway have been consistently dangerous throughout the tournament.
England’s best avenue to goal remains the individual quality of Kane, Bellingham and Saka on the counter. With Norway committing men forward to supply Haaland, the spaces behind their full-backs , particularly Meling on the left against Saka , represent England’s most dangerous attacking corridor.
Frequently Asked Questions: Norway vs England
When is Norway vs England?
Saturday 11 July 2026, kick-off 22:00 BST. The match is played at Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium) in Miami Gardens, Florida, USA.
What channel is Norway vs England on in the UK?
The match is broadcast live on ITV1. You can stream it free on ITVX without a subscription. BBC also holds World Cup rights , check listings closer to kick-off.
What is the prediction for Norway vs England?
The prediction is England 2-1. England have the structural depth and knockout experience for this stage, but Haaland will score because he always does. Kane delivers twice and England progress. Both teams to score is the standout market at 4/5.
Is Quansah playing against Norway?
No. Jarrell Quansah was sent off against Mexico and serves a one-match suspension. John Stones and Marc Guehi are expected to partner in central defence.
How many goals has Haaland scored at this World Cup?
Haaland has scored seven goals in five World Cup appearances, equal with Messi and Mbappe at the top of the Golden Boot standings. He has scored in each of his last 14 competitive international appearances for Norway.
Has England beaten Norway before?
England lead the all-time head-to-head record. Norway’s most famous victory over England came in 1981 in Oslo at Ullevaal Stadion, a 2-1 win that produced one of football commentary’s most celebrated moments. This is the first competitive meeting between the sides in over 20 years.
Who is the favourite?
England are the narrow favourite at 5/4 (implied 44.4%). Norway are available at 9/4, with the draw priced at 9/4. The market is effectively calling this a genuine three-way contest.
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