Paraguay vs Australia – Betting Tips
Group D, Matchday 3 | Levi's Stadium (San Francisco Bay Area Stadium), Santa Clara | Friday 26 June 2026, 03:00 BST
Our Best Bets
Australia draw or win
Under 2.5 goals
Our Prediction
Paraguay 0-1 Australia
This is the group’s genuine cup tie. USA are already through as winners and Turkey are out, so Paraguay and Australia effectively play for second place and a much kinder route through the bracket. Australia sit on better goal difference, which means a draw does the job for Tony Popović, and that lets the Socceroos play on the front foot of the result rather than the scoreline. Paraguay must win outright, but they go into it without their suspended captain of the creative department, Miguel Almirón, and they have not been an easy team to get goals out of even with him in. I am siding with Australia’s structure and a smart late chance for a narrow win.
⚠️ The markets actually price Paraguay as marginal favourites at home in California, so do not take this as a comfortable Australian banker. It is closer to a coin toss than the prediction suggests, with the draw the most likely single outcome.
⭐️ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
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Paraguay vs Australia – Betting Tips
Our odds boost guide is worth a look first for squeezing a bit more out of these markets.
| Tip | Market | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Tip 1 | Australia Double Chance (Draw or Win) | A draw is enough for the Socceroos. They are higher-ranked, unbeaten in five against Paraguay and now face an opponent missing its top scorer and main creator. |
| Tip 2 (Value) | Under 2.5 Goals | Two defensive sides in a nervy decider, and Paraguay’s job becomes harder still without Almirón. Five of their last six qualifiers produced two goals or fewer. |
Tip 1 – Australia Double Chance (Draw or Win)
Australia are in the driver’s seat. Better goal difference means a point will do, they are ranked 27th to Paraguay’s 41st, and they are unbeaten in five against Paraguay with two wins and three draws. Add in the suspended Miguel Almirón, Paraguay’s top scorer with 10 international goals and their main creator, and the double chance looks solid.
⚠️ Worth flagging openly: UK markets actually price Paraguay as marginal favourites at around 23/20, with Australia closer to 3/1 and the draw 9/4. The double chance still lands at a sensible price because both halves of it are in play. Treat it as the anchor for a bet builder rather than a fancy stand-alone return.
Tip 2 – Value Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
For a bigger return, Under 2.5 Goals is where I see the value, with the price hovering around evens. The match-up screams low-scoring. Both sides are built bottom-up rather than from the front, Paraguay’s attacking weight has just been suspended, and Australia have averaged just 6.7 shots per game across their last two World Cup outings, a clear dip in attacking output. Five of Paraguay’s last six competitive matches produced two goals or fewer.
The match state reinforces it. Australia know a draw progresses them, so Popović is unlikely to throw caution to the wind, while Paraguay are coached by Gustavo Alfaro, a manager whose entire philosophy is structure first. In a knockout-feel game where neither side wants to make the first mistake, a tense 1-0 or 0-0 has real weight behind it.
The honest catch is that Paraguay are forced to chase if it stays level deep into the second half, which can crack a tight game open. That risk is exactly why the price is closer to evens than a banker.
Odds disclaimer: All odds in this article were correct at the time of writing and may have changed. Always confirm current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
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Paraguay vs Australia – Match Preview
| Point | Paraguay | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| World Ranking | 41st | 27th |
| Captain | Gustavo Gómez | Jackson Irvine |
| Goals scored (this World Cup) | 2 | 2 |
| Goals conceded (this World Cup) | 4 | 2 |
| Top Scorer (international) | Miguel Almirón (10, suspended) | Jackson Irvine (14) |
| Manager | Gustavo Alfaro | Tony Popović |
| Formation | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 / 5-4-1 |
| What they need | Win to be sure of second | Draw or win for second |
Paraguay – Current Status
Paraguay bounced back from a 4-1 opening drubbing by the USA with a gritty 1-0 over Turkey, keeping a clean sheet despite Miguel Almirón seeing red just before half-time. Alfaro’s whole approach is built on a compact, hard-working block, and the Turkey result was the proof that it works under pressure. The challenge now is finding goals without their best attacker.
⚠️ Miguel Almirón is suspended after his red card against Turkey, picked up for covering his mouth during a confrontation. He is Paraguay’s top scorer and main creative outlet, and his absence in a match they must win is the single biggest factor in this fixture. Diego Gómez was a fitness doubt after coming off against Turkey but has reportedly recovered in time.
Predicted Paraguay XI (4-4-2): Gill; Cáceres, G Gómez, Alderete, Alonso; D Gómez, Cubas, Galarza, Sosa; Pitta, Enciso.
⚠️ Predicted line-ups are unconfirmed and subject to late changes.
Australia – Current Status
Australia opened with a composed 2-0 win over Turkey, with goals from Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, before losing 2-0 to the USA in a game that turned on an own goal and a marginal VAR call. Popović was criticised for dropping both his Turkey goalscorers for the USA match, a decision he has since regretted, so expect Irankunda back from the start. Popović likes to set up disciplined and structured, and a point being enough only sharpens that approach.
⚠️ Mathew Leckie is out with a hamstring injury sustained against the USA, which may well end his tournament. Cristian Volpato, arguably Australia’s most technically gifted footballer in years, is in line for a bigger role. Jacob Italiano is also unavailable at right-back, with Jason Geria or Kai Trewin likely to step in.
Predicted Australia XI (4-3-3): Ryan; Degenek, Souttar, Circati, Bos; Irvine, O’Neill, Metcalfe; Mabil, Irankunda, Volpato.
⚠️ Heavy adjustment is likely after the USA loss, so treat this XI as a best guess.
Paraguay vs Australia – Key Statistics
The numbers point straight at a cagey night. Paraguay and Australia are both on three points after their split results, with Australia second only on goal difference. That tiebreaker is what shapes the betting picture: a draw sends Australia through and condemns Paraguay to relying on best third-place spots. If both sides finish level on points but tied head-to-head as well, goal difference is the next call, and Australia hold the edge there too.
Both sides build from the back. Paraguay shipped four against the USA but held firm against Turkey with 10 men for the entire second half, withstanding 32 shots, while Matías Galarza opened the scoring inside two minutes for the tournament’s quickest goal so far. Australia have conceded just two in two games and have leant on Mathew Ryan’s experience between the sticks. Six of Paraguay’s last 10 fixtures have failed to produce more than two goals in total, which is exactly the trend this match looks set to follow.
Team News & Context
Star Player Spotlight
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay): The Strasbourg youngster now carries an even heavier creative load with Almirón suspended. If Paraguay are going to break Australia down, it likely runs through him in the half-spaces.
- Nestory Irankunda (Australia): The 20-year-old Watford forward scored against Turkey and is expected back from the start after his harsh demotion for the USA defeat. His pace and direct running are Australia’s sharpest weapon on the break.
Head-to-Head Record
These two have met five times, all in friendlies, and Australia are unbeaten with two wins and three draws. The most recent meeting, in 2010, finished 1-0 to the Socceroos. This is their first meeting at a major tournament. One quirk worth flagging: Australia have never beaten a South American nation at a World Cup, with one draw and four defeats from five attempts, so the historical edge over Paraguay specifically is balanced by a wider continental headache.
Top Scorer in Head-to-Head Fixtures
The history is spread across friendlies played over more than two decades with constantly changing squads, so there is no meaningful head-to-head goal record to lean on. Current form is the better guide here, and that points to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a goalscorer to single out.
Manager Profile
- Gustavo Alfaro (Paraguay): The Argentine has built a hard-to-beat side and ended Paraguay’s 16-year wait to return to a World Cup. Structure before flair is the whole point of his project.
- Tony Popović (Australia): Pragmatic and well organised, with strong analysis from his playing days that included three of the five previous friendlies against Paraguay. He has admitted his USA selection was wrong and is unlikely to repeat the cautious tinkering.
Paraguay vs Australia – Last 5 Matches Form
The form lines underline how evenly matched these sides are when conditions are level.
Paraguay – Last 5 Form
| Result | Opponent | Match Type |
|---|---|---|
| W 1-0 | Turkey | Competitive (World Cup) |
| L 1-4 | USA | Competitive (World Cup) |
| W 4-0 | Nicaragua | Friendly |
| L 1-2 | Morocco | Friendly |
| W 1-0 | Greece | Friendly |
Overall: three wins and two defeats, with eight scored and six conceded. The wins have all been narrow, structured 1-0 or 4-0 jobs, which fits the Alfaro template exactly.
Australia – Last 5 Form
| Result | Opponent | Match Type |
|---|---|---|
| L 0-2 | USA | Competitive (World Cup) |
| W 2-0 | Turkey | Competitive (World Cup) |
| D 1-1 | Switzerland | Friendly |
| L 0-1 | Mexico | Friendly |
| W 5-1 | Curaçao | Friendly |
Overall: two wins, a draw and two defeats, with eight scored and five conceded. The two World Cup performances neatly bookend their range, dominant against Turkey, second best against the USA.
Neither side plays on home turf, but the form in competitive games is what matters. Paraguay have shown two faces, vulnerable against top opposition and immovable against weaker. Australia have done the same in reverse, convincing against Turkey and outclassed by the USA. Against teams of similar level, both have been tight at the back, which is the core of the under-goals argument.
Momentum is finely balanced but Australia have the table on their side. The Socceroos can lean on a draw being enough, while Paraguay must take the game without their best player. That pressure could crack the game open late on, but for the bulk of the night both sides will be focused on not conceding.
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Frequently Asked Questions
When do Paraguay play Australia?
The match is at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with a UK kick-off at 03:00 BST in the early hours of Friday 26 June 2026.
What is the prediction for Paraguay vs Australia?
We are going for a 1-0 Australia win. The Socceroos only need a draw, are unbeaten in five against Paraguay and face an opponent missing their suspended top scorer, so a narrow result suits them down to the ground. Confidence: Medium (3/5).
What are the progression scenarios?
Australia go through as runners-up with a win or a draw thanks to their better goal difference. Paraguay must win outright to overtake them. Whichever side finishes third still has a route through as one of the best third-placed teams, but with a much tougher last-32 opponent waiting.
Where can I watch Paraguay vs Australia in the UK?
The game is being shown live on ITV, with streaming available through the ITVX app free of charge. Check the listings on the day in case of a late schedule change.
What are the odds for Paraguay vs Australia?
Paraguay are narrow favourites at around 23/20, the draw sits roughly at 9/4, and an Australia win is out around 3/1. These odds were correct at the time of writing and can move.
Predictions and betting tips on this page are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. This site accepts no responsibility for losses arising from information published here. Betting should always be a form of entertainment and never a financial strategy.
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