Bournemouth v Liverpool: Betting Tips & Odds
Premier League, Matchday 5 | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth | Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 BST
Our main tip is Liverpool to win at 21/20. The value tip is Both Teams To Score at 7/16. We’re calling it Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool in a fixture that has produced goals at both ends in four of the last five meetings between these two.
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Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Liverpool to win | 21/20 |
| Value Tip | Both teams to score – Yes | 7/16 |
| Correct Score | Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool | 9/1 |
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 29/42 won |
| Value | 21/42 won |
| Bet Builder | 13/42 won |
| Correct Score | 2/42 won |
Win Percentage: 38.7% | ROI: -4.81%
A rough week for value and correct scores despite a solid Main tip record. Only two correct scores landed exactly all week: Dortmund 3-0 Paderborn and IFK Göteborg 2-1 Halmstad. Union Berlin, AZ Alkmaar and Häcken all dropped points as home favourites, Liverpool and Tottenham each drew 0-0 at home, Atalanta lost at home to Cagliari, and Leeds beat Newcastle 4-1 to cap off a tough closing day.
Read the full analysis for 8-14 September here.
Results 21 August-15 September
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 88/127 won |
| Value | 74/127 won |
| Bet Builder | 53/127 won |
| Correct Score | 13/127 won |
Win Percentage: 44.9% | ROI: +5.55%
ROI is scoped to the two most recent complete periods where exact odds are available (the 8-14 September domestic week and Champions League Matchday 1, 60 matches combined, +5.55%). The oldest period (21 August-7 September, 67 matches) is included in the win/loss counts and win percentage above, but its original per-bet odds weren’t preserved, so it isn’t part of the ROI figure.
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Four of five selections came in: Real Madrid, Ajax, Twente and Newcastle all won as required. Häcken, the final leg, could only draw 1-1 with Mjällby, so the accumulator falls one leg short of a full house.
Read the full tip with the accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Manchester United v Manchester City: a perfect week. Manchester City won as backed, the value tip (Under 2.5 goals) came in, and the correct score hit exactly at 0-1, with Erling Haaland the scorer. Read the full tip here.
What We Did in Champions League Last Week
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 15/18 won |
| Value | 13/18 won |
| Bet Builder | 12/18 won |
| Correct Score | 2/18 won |
Win Percentage: 58.3% | ROI: +29.42%
A strong opening matchday overall. PSV and Fenerbahçe both drew 1-1 to cost us all three tips in those two matches, and Lille’s win over Real Betis cost us the Main tip elsewhere, but Slavia Prague-Lens, Bayern-Bodø/Glimt, Como-Leipzig and Manchester United-Sabah all landed, with Manchester United’s 4-0 hitting the correct score exactly.
Read the full Matchday 1 breakdown here.
🏆 Editor’s Pick
Bet365
Football’s Best Odds
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What We Did With Our Champions League Highlighted Matches
Real Madrid v Inter (2-1): the main tip landed, with Real Madrid winning as backed. The value tip, Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score, also came in. The correct score missed (we called 3-1). Read the full tip here.
Liverpool v Atlético Madrid (2-1): a clean sweep. The main tip landed with Liverpool winning, the value tip came in with both teams scoring, and the correct score hit exactly as called. Read the full tip here.
This Week’s Champions League Accumulator: The Result
Four of five selections came in: Stuttgart won, Borussia Dortmund won, Manchester City won, and Sporting CP won. PSV, though, could only draw 1-1 with Shakhtar Donetsk, so the accumulator doesn’t pay out despite the strong 4/5 return.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 21/10 |
| Draw | 27/10 |
| Liverpool | 21/20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1/2 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31/19 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 7/16 |
| Both teams to score – No | 31/19 |
Liverpool are away favourites at 21/20, with Bournemouth out at 21/10 for a home win and the draw at 27/10. The goals markets are priced tightly too: Both Teams To Score at 7/16 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 1/2, which points to a match expected to have both sides finding the net rather than simply being a high-scoring one outright.
Value Calculator
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 21/10 | 32.3% | 27% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 27/10 | 27.0% | 24% | -1.0% |
| Liverpool to win | 21/20 | 48.8% | 49% | +3.9% |
Market probability: Bournemouth 30% | Draw 25% | Liverpool 45% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
The de-vigging itself is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” beyond that is editorial judgement built from current form and head-to-head, not a proprietary model. We lean a touch further toward Liverpool than the market does, largely on the back of an unbeaten start to the season, though Bournemouth’s home record against this exact opponent in January, and Liverpool’s own goalless draw last time out, keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
🏆 Editor’s Pick
BetMGM UK
Football’s Best Odds
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Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Liverpool to win @ 21/20
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions: three draws and two wins, including a 2-1 Champions League win over Atlético Madrid, though their most recent outing was a goalless draw at home to Fulham
- Liverpool have won 18 of the 22 meetings with Bournemouth all-time, with only three Bournemouth wins and one draw
- Andoni Iraola returns to the club he managed for several seasons before this summer’s move to Anfield, adding an emotional edge that cuts both ways
The long-run head-to-head is about as one-sided as it gets in the Premier League, but the price reflects a genuinely competitive match rather than a foregone conclusion. Liverpool’s attack has gone quiet in their last outing, and Bournemouth won the reverse fixture at home in January after twice giving up the lead, which keeps this from being a stronger pick than 21/20 already suggests.
Value Tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 7/16
- Four of the last five meetings between these two sides have finished with three or more goals, including 5, 6, 3 and 4 in the last four alone
- Bournemouth have scored in four of their last five matches, with their most recent outing a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford
- Liverpool have found the net in four of their last five, with the exception being last time out’s 0-0 at home to Fulham
Both sides have shown they can be got at over the course of the season, even with one blank result apiece in their most recent outings. Given the pattern in this specific fixture historically, both teams scoring looks like the more repeatable angle than the outright winner alone.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool. A scenario consistent with both the main tip and the value tip: the away side edges a competitive, open game rather than settling it cheaply.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool to win | 21/20 |
| 2 | Both teams to score – Yes | 7/16 |
| Combined | 25/13 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This pairs an away win with goals at both ends of the pitch rather than a tight, controlled away performance, which fits a fixture that has rarely produced a low-scoring result historically. The combined price at 25/13 is shorter than multiplying the two individual legs would suggest, reflecting the real correlation between an away win and goals at both ends.
Team News
Bournemouth
Marco Rose’s first Premier League campaign in charge has been a mixed one: a late collapse at Manchester City, a blown two-goal lead away at Newcastle, and most recently a 2-2 home draw with Brentford after Bournemouth had led. Bournemouth did ease through in the EFL Cup in midweek before that, beating Lincoln City 4-0. Amine Adli, the man who scored the stoppage-time winner in the reverse fixture in January, was carrying a knock heading into this window, alongside Junior Kroupi and Julián Araujo.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Petrovic; Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith; Scott; Tavernier, Adams, Rayan; Kluivert, Evanilson.
⚠️ Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off.
Liverpool
Andoni Iraola takes his Liverpool side back to the club he managed for several seasons before this summer’s move to Anfield. Liverpool remain unbeaten since the opening weekend, but their form has cooled: a 2-1 Champions League win over Atlético Madrid in midweek was followed by a goalless draw at home to Fulham. Conor Bradley (knee surgery) and Hugo Ekitiké (Achilles) remain long-term absentees, while Federico Chiesa and Giovanni Leoni are both working toward first-team training rather than match fitness.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Tsimikas, van Dijk, Jacquet, Araujo; Szoboszlai, Gravenberch; Munoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.
⚠️ Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off.
Recent Form
Bournemouth
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| D 2-2 | Brentford (H) | Premier League |
| W 4-0 | Lincoln City (H) | EFL Cup |
| D 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | Premier League |
| D 1-1 | Everton (H) | Premier League |
| L 1-2 | Manchester City (A) | Premier League |
One win from five, but four of those five have been drawn or lost by a single goal, a side that competes without yet turning games in their favour.
Liverpool
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| D 0-0 | Fulham (H) | Premier League |
| W 2-1 | Atlético Madrid (H) | Champions League |
| W 2-0 | Ipswich Town (A) | Premier League |
| D 2-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | Premier League |
| D 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | Premier League |
Unbeaten in five, though the goals have dried up in the most recent match. For more on the Atlético Madrid result, see our Champions League tip here.
Bournemouth v Liverpool: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 24 January 2026 | Bournemouth v Liverpool (PL) | 3-2 |
| 15 August 2025 | Liverpool v Bournemouth (PL) | 4-2 |
| 1 February 2025 | Bournemouth v Liverpool (PL) | 0-2 |
| 21 September 2024 | Liverpool v Bournemouth (PL) | 3-0 |
| 21 January 2024 | Bournemouth v Liverpool (PL) | 0-4 |
Liverpool have won 18 of the 22 all-time meetings to Bournemouth’s three, with one draw, but the most recent meeting bucked that trend: Bournemouth came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at the Vitality Stadium in January, ending a run of six straight Liverpool wins in the fixture. Liverpool are also one of only two clubs Bournemouth have lost more Premier League games and conceded more goals against than any other opponent in the competition, the other being Manchester City, which says as much about the scale of the challenge here as the table position gap does. Liverpool’s midweek Champions League commitments add another variable to squad freshness this week; see our Matchday 1 roundup here for how the rest of that fixture list played out.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in Bournemouth v Liverpool?
Liverpool are favourites away at 21/20. Bournemouth are priced at 21/10, with the draw at 27/10.
What is the prediction for Bournemouth v Liverpool?
Our main tip is Liverpool to win at 21/20. The value tip is Both Teams To Score. We expect Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool.
When is Bournemouth v Liverpool?
Sunday 20 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 BST, at the Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, for Matchday 5 of the Premier League.
Why is this match significant for Andoni Iraola?
Iraola left Bournemouth this summer to take over at Liverpool. This is his first return to the Vitality Stadium since the move, facing the club he managed for several seasons.
What do the recent meetings between Bournemouth and Liverpool show?
Liverpool have won 18 of 22 all-time meetings, but Bournemouth won the most recent one 3-2 in January 2026, coming from 2-0 down.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub, or check our Premier League hub for the rest of this week’s fixtures.
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