England v Spain: Betting Tips & Odds
Nations League, Group A3 | Wembley Stadium, London | Saturday 26 September 2026, 19:45 BST
Our main tip is Both Teams To Score at 9/14. The value tip is Spain to win at 29/20. We’re calling it England 1-2 Spain in the first meeting between these two since Spain won the World Cup this summer.
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Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Both teams to score – Yes | 9/14 |
| Value Tip | Spain to win | 29/20 |
| Correct Score | England 1-2 Spain | 9.5/1 |
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 28/52 won |
| Value | 29/52 won |
| Bet Builder | 14/52 won |
| Correct Score | 2/52 won |
Win Percentage: 35.1% | ROI: -11.67%
A rough week for favourites across the board. Alavés, Omonia, Milan, Celtic, Bologna, Athletic Bilbao, Sporting, Tottenham, Brighton, Leeds and Fulham all dropped points as favourites. Only two correct scores landed exactly: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon and Monaco 2-1 Lens.
Read the full analysis for 15-21 September here.
Results 21 August-21 September
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 91/145 won |
| Value | 78/145 won |
| Bet Builder | 50/145 won |
| Correct Score | 10/145 won |
Win Percentage: 39.5% | ROI: -15.16%
This figure has now been fully verified match by match across all four periods (21 August-7 September, 8-14 September, Champions League Matchday 1, and 15-21 September, replacing an earlier inherited baseline that turned out to be inaccurate). The corrected 21 August-7 September baseline is 33 matches (Main 19/33, Value 15/33, Bet Builder 11/33, Correct Score 4/33), down from the 67 matches previously reported.
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Four of five selections came in: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Real Madrid all won as required. Sporting, the final leg, could only draw 2-2 with Arouca, so the accumulator falls one leg short of a full house.
Read the full tip with the accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Bournemouth v Liverpool: a mixed week. The main tip landed with Liverpool winning 1-0, but the value tip (Both Teams To Score) and the correct score both missed as Liverpool’s goal was enough on its own. Read the full tip here.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| England | 33/20 |
| Draw | 9/4 |
| Spain | 29/20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15/17 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 9/14 |
| Both teams to score – No | 11/10 |
The market is genuinely tight here: Spain are marginal favourites away at 29/20, with England close behind at 33/20 and the draw at 9/4. Both Teams To Score at 9/14 is the shortest price on the board, shorter even than the outright winner markets, which points to a game where goals at both ends look more likely than either side keeping a clean sheet.
Value Calculator
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England to win | 33/20 | 37.7% | 34% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 9/4 | 30.8% | 27% | -3.8% |
| Spain to win | 29/20 | 40.8% | 39% | -1.8% |
| Spain to win | 29/20 | 40.8% | 39% | -1.8% |
Market probability: England 35% | Draw 28% | Spain 37% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
The de-vigging itself is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” beyond that is editorial judgement built from current form, not a proprietary model. We stay close to what the market already says here: Spain arrive as reigning world champions on the back of a dominant tournament, but this is a dead rubber in terms of stakes with a heavily rotated squad likely on both sides, which keeps us from leaning much further toward the away side than the market already does.
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Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 9/14
- Spain scored in every one of their six World Cup matches this summer, including one in the final itself (extra time)
- England scored in every one of their five World Cup matches too, including six against France in the third-place play-off
- Four of the last five meetings between these two sides have finished with goals at both ends
Both squads have shown they can find the net against elite opposition all summer, and the head-to-head history backs up the same pattern. With this being a first international fixture of the new season rather than a knockout occasion, an open, entertaining game with goals at both ends looks like the more repeatable angle than picking a winner with confidence.
Value Tip: Spain to win @ 29/20
- Spain go into this match as reigning world champions, having won the tournament without losing a single game
- Spain have won three of the last five meetings with England, including the Euro 2024 final
- England’s tournament ended in a semi-final defeat to Argentina, before a high-scoring third-place win over France
Spain’s underlying quality and recent tournament pedigree give them a small edge even away at Wembley, though the gap the market offers is modest rather than overwhelming, consistent with a genuinely competitive fixture between two of the world’s leading sides.
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Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: England 1-2 Spain. A scenario consistent with both the main tip and the value tip: the away side edges a game with goals at both ends rather than either side dominating.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain to win | 29/20 |
| 2 | Both teams to score – Yes | 9/14 |
| Combined | 3.25/1 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This pairs an away win with goals at both ends, a scenario consistent with how both sides have played all summer rather than a cautious, low-scoring international friendly-style approach. No combined price is shown as this hasn’t been confirmed against a real book yet.
Team News
England
England’s summer ended in the World Cup semi-final, beaten 1-2 by Argentina, before a thrilling 6-4 win over France in the third-place play-off. Thomas Tuchel’s squad for this international window draws on that same core: Jordan Pickford in goal, with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Marc Guéhi and Declan Rice among the experienced names, alongside younger faces like Myles Lewis-Skelly, Kobbie Mainoo and Rio Ngumoha. Harry Kane, England’s talisman throughout the World Cup run, is included after his move to Bayern.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1, based on the squad named for this window): Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guéhi, Hall; Rice, Mainoo; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
⚠️ Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off, this is our best estimate from the squad list rather than a confirmed starting XI.
Spain
Spain arrive as reigning world champions, having gone through the entire tournament unbeaten, beating Austria, Portugal, Belgium, France and Argentina (the final, after extra time) without losing a single match. The squad named for this window carries much of that winning group: David Raya in goal, with Pedri, Rodri, Gavi and Nico Williams among the headline names in a squad that blends the Barcelona core with experienced players like Aymeric Laporte and Marcos Llorente.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3, based on the squad named for this window): Raya; Porro, Laporte, Cubarsí, Cucurella; Rodri, Zubimendi, Pedri; Nico Williams, Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres.
⚠️ Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off, this is our best estimate from the squad list rather than a confirmed starting XI.
Recent Form
England
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 6-4 | France (A) | World Cup third-place play-off |
| L 1-2 | Argentina (H) | World Cup semi-final |
| W 2-1 | Norway (A, AET) | World Cup quarter-final |
| W 3-2 | Mexico (A) | World Cup round of 16 |
| W 2-1 | D.R. Congo (H) | World Cup round of 32 |
A deep World Cup run ended at the semi-final stage, with a big win over France to close out the tournament in third place.
Spain
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 1-0 | Argentina (N, AET) | World Cup final |
| W 2-0 | France (A) | World Cup semi-final |
| W 2-1 | Belgium (H) | World Cup quarter-final |
| W 1-0 | Portugal (A) | World Cup round of 16 |
| W 3-0 | Austria (H) | World Cup round of 32 |
A perfect run to the World Cup title, winning every match from the round of 32 through to lifting the trophy against Argentina.
England v Spain: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 14 July 2024 | Spain v England (Euro Final) | 2-1 |
| 15 October 2018 | Spain v England (Nations League) | 2-3 |
| 8 September 2018 | England v Spain (Nations League) | 1-2 |
| 15 November 2016 | England v Spain (Friendly) | 2-2 |
| 13 November 2015 | Spain v England (Friendly) | 2-0 |
Spain have won three of the last five meetings, including a hard-fought 2-1 win in the Euro 2024 final, still a painful recent memory for England supporters. This is the first meeting between the two sides since that final, and the first since Spain went on to win the World Cup this summer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in England v Spain?
The market is very close: Spain are marginal favourites away at 29/20, with England at 33/20 and the draw at 9/4.
What is the prediction for England v Spain?
Our main tip is Both Teams To Score. The value tip is Spain to win. We expect England 1-2 Spain.
When is England v Spain?
Saturday 26 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 BST, at Wembley Stadium in London, for Group A3 of the Nations League.
Why is this match significant?
It’s the first meeting between the two sides since Spain beat England in the Euro 2024 final, and the first since Spain went on to win the World Cup this summer without losing a match.
What do the recent meetings between England and Spain show?
Spain have won three of the last five meetings, including the Euro 2024 final. England’s only win in that span came in a 2018 Nations League match.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub, or check our Nations League hub for the rest of this week’s fixtures.
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