Manchester United v Manchester City: Betting Tips & Odds
Premier League, Matchweek 4 | Old Trafford, Stretford | Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:30 BST
Our main tip is Manchester City to win at 11/10. Our value pick is Under 2.5 goals at 6/4. We’re calling it 0-1 to City in a tight, low-scoring derby.
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Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Manchester City to win | 11/10 |
| Value Tip | Under 2.5 goals | 6/4 |
| Correct Score | Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City | 10/1 |
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 13/23 won |
| Value | 9/23 won |
| Bet Builder | 6/23 won |
| Correct Score | 3/23 won |
Win Percentage: 33.7% | ROI: -18.8%
A genuinely tough week, with several big upsets against short-priced favourites. The highlight was three correct scores nailed exactly (Marítimo-Benfica 0-3, Roma-Atalanta 2-1 and Arsenal-Chelsea 2-1), but the week delivered heavy setbacks: PSG lost at home to Monaco (1-2), Real Madrid lost their fourth match under José Mourinho away at Real Betis (0-1), and our own highlight match Malmö FF v AIK finished 0-0 with not a single tip landing.
Read the full analysis and results for 1-7 September here.
Results 21 August-07/09/2026
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 44/67 won |
| Value | 40/67 won |
| Bet Builder | 28/67 won |
| Correct Score | 9/67 won |
Win Percentage: 45.1% | ROI: roughly +1.7%
The ROI figure is built from exact odds for the last two weeks (1-7 September and 24-31 August). The oldest data (Gameweek 1) goes further back and doesn’t have odds saved per bet, so it contributes to the win percentage above but not to the precise ROI calculation.
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
The accumulator finished with just 1 of 5 legs correct. PSG lost at home to Monaco (1-2), and Real Madrid fell away at Real Betis (0-1) in their fourth match under José Mourinho. Liverpool won as expected, but both Malmö FF and Midtjylland finished level (0-0 and 2-2 respectively) instead of winning as required.
Read the full tip with the accumulator here.
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How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Arsenal v Chelsea: a perfect week. Arsenal won 2-1 exactly as predicted, hitting the main tip, the value tip, and the correct score all at once. Read the full tip here.
Full Time Result & Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Manchester United | 21/10 |
| Draw | 13/5 |
| Manchester City | 11/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 6/4 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/9 |
| Both teams to score – No | 13/8 |
Manchester City are favourites away from home at 11/10, with United out at 21/10 in the Manchester derby. The goals market leans toward the under side, with BTTS – No priced considerably shorter than Yes (4/9 against 13/8), suggesting the market expects City to control the game rather than an open, high-scoring affair.
Value Calculator
Here’s how some of the more specific markets compare to our own read of the game.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 21/10 | 32.3% | 30% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% | 26% | -1.8% |
| Manchester City to win | 11/10 | 47.6% | 44% | -3.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 6/4 | 40.0% | 44% | +4.0% |
| Both teams to score – No | 13/8 | 38.1% | 42% | +3.9% STRONGEST |
Market probability: Manchester United 30% | Draw 26% | Manchester City 44%
Here’s how we get there: bookmakers build a margin into their odds (typically 5-8%) to guarantee their own edge, so we strip that out first to find the market’s true probability. From there, our own estimate layers in recent form, goal-scoring trends, and head-to-head patterns on top of that baseline, which is how we spot markets where the price and the picture on the pitch start to disagree.
United arrive off a 2-2 draw at Everton, while City are unbeaten in their last five and have kept a cleaner defensive record overall. The recent head-to-head is closer than the current form gap suggests, though: United have actually won two of the last five meetings between these two sides, with City winning one in normal time and one more on penalties.
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Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Manchester City to win @ 11/10
- Manchester City have won three of their last five matches and are unbeaten in that run, with the only blemish a Community Shield defeat to Arsenal
- Manchester United drew 2-2 at Everton in their last match, having also lost to Hull earlier in the same run of five
- The recent head-to-head is tighter than City’s current form suggests: United have won two of the last five meetings, with City’s only win in normal time coming by a single goal
City’s current form and away record make them the sensible favourites, but this fixture has a habit of throwing up closer contests than the league table suggests, which keeps the main tip at a moderate rather than a maximum confidence level.
Value Tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 6/4
- Manchester City have kept things relatively tight defensively in their recent wins, despite the odd high-scoring result
- Manchester United’s recent matches have been a mix of high-scoring affairs and tighter contests, including a goalless draw with City themselves back in April 2025
- The BTTS market leans clearly toward “No”, pointing toward a game where at least one side struggles to find the net
With the market’s goals-related pricing pointing toward a tighter contest than a raw home-versus-away reading might suggest, Under 2.5 goals looks like the more reliable angle into this fixture.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City. A scenario that reflects both the main tip and the value tip, with City edging a tight, low-scoring derby rather than a high-scoring afternoon.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City to win | 11/10 |
| 2 | Under 2.5 goals | 6/4 |
| Combined | – |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This combination captures a scenario where City win a tighter, controlled game rather than a high-scoring afternoon, which fits the picture of a side that has generally kept things composed defensively of late. The real combined price should always be checked on your own bookmaker’s app before betting.
Team News
Manchester United
United go into the derby off the back of a 2-2 draw at Everton, having also beaten Ipswich 5-2 but lost to Hull earlier in their last five matches across all competitions. The pre-season friendly defeat to AC Milan (2-4) was followed by a penalty shootout win over Leeds.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha.
⚠️ Predicted lineups are unconfirmed and may change before kick-off.
Manchester City
City travel to Old Trafford unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, with wins over Coventry (1-0), Crystal Palace (4-1) and Bournemouth (2-1), plus a friendly win over Atlético Madrid (3-1). Their only defeat in that run came in the Community Shield against Arsenal (0-3).
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; Anderson, Fernandes; Ndiaye, Cherki, Semenyo; Haaland.
⚠️ Predicted lineups are unconfirmed and may change before kick-off.
Recent Form
Manchester United
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| D 2-2 | Everton (A) | Premier League |
| W 5-2 | Ipswich (H) | Premier League |
| L 0-2 | Hull (A) | Premier League |
| L 2-4 | AC Milan (A) | Friendly |
| W 1-1 (5-4 pens) | Leeds (H) | Friendly |
A mixed run with two wins, a draw and two defeats, though the most recent result was a draw against an Everton side away from home.
Manchester City
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 1-0 | Coventry (H) | Premier League |
| W 4-1 | Crystal Palace (A) | Premier League |
| W 2-1 | Bournemouth (H) | Premier League |
| L 0-3 | Arsenal (A) | Community Shield |
| W 3-1 | Atlético Madrid (H) | Friendly |
Four wins from five, with the sole defeat coming in the season-opening Community Shield against Arsenal rather than a league fixture.
Manchester United v Manchester City: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 17 January 2026 | Manchester United v Manchester City | 2-0 |
| 14 September 2025 | Manchester City v Manchester United | 3-0 |
| 6 April 2025 | Manchester United v Manchester City | 0-0 |
| 15 December 2024 | Manchester City v Manchester United | 1-2 |
| 10 August 2024 | Manchester City v Manchester United (Community Shield, pens) | 1-1 (7-6 on pens) |
Manchester United have won two of the last five meetings in normal time, with Manchester City winning once and a Community Shield meeting settled on penalties in City’s favour. The head-to-head is closer than City’s current league form might suggest.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in Manchester United v Manchester City?
Manchester City are favourites away from home at 11/10. Manchester United are priced at 21/10, with the draw at 13/5.
What is the prediction for Manchester United v Manchester City?
Our main tip is Manchester City to win at 11/10. The value tip is Under 2.5 goals at 6/4. We expect Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City.
When is Manchester United v Manchester City?
Sunday 13 September 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, at Old Trafford, for Matchweek 4 of the Premier League.
How have both teams got on recently?
Manchester United drew 2-2 at Everton in their last match, in a mixed run of results. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last five, with their only defeat coming in the Community Shield against Arsenal.
What do the recent meetings between Manchester United and Manchester City show?
United have won two of the last five meetings in normal time, with City winning once and a Community Shield meeting decided on penalties. The head-to-head is tighter than the current form gap between the two sides might suggest.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub.
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