Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Betting Tips & Odds
Champions League, Matchday 3 | Allianz Arena, Munich | Wednesday 21 October 2026, 20:00 BST
Arsenal have won 14 straight games in the Champions League league phase and have not conceded a goal in the competition this season. Next comes the Allianz Arena and a Bayern side who have drawn twice since the international break and are without the suspended Michael Olise. Our main tip is both teams to score at 40/85, our value tip is Arsenal to win at 2/1, and we are going for 1-2.
Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Both teams to score | 40/85 | bet365 |
| Value Tip | Arsenal to win | 2/1 | BetMGM |
| Correct Score | Bayern 1-2 Arsenal | 9/1 | BoyleSports |
| First Half | Under 1.5 first-half goals | 4/7 | BoyleSports |
| Longer Shot | Arsenal to lead at half-time | 5/2 | BoyleSports |
Odds are from the bookmakers named in the table and were correct at time of writing. The 1X2 table and value calculator use BetMGM’s prices. Always check current odds before placing a bet.
Kane Against a Defence That Has Not Conceded
Harry Kane scored twice in Stavanger and has now scored in nine straight Champions League games, a club record he shares with Robert Lewandowski. It still was not enough: Viking equalised for 3-3 in the 90th minute against a Bayern side down to ten men after Michael Olise’s red card. Arsenal have gone the other way. Jurrien Timber, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka scored all three goals in a seven-minute spell after the break against Lille, who did not manage a shot on target, and Arsenal also won the last meeting with Bayern, 3-1 in London in November 2025.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 11/10 |
| Draw | 13/5 |
| Arsenal | 2/1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/7 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 5/4 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 40/85 |
| Both teams to score: No | 7/5 |
Odds at BetMGM. Bayern are favourites at 11/10, with Arsenal at 2/1 and the draw at 13/5. The goal markets expect goals at both ends: both teams to score is 40/85 and Over 2.5 goals is 4/7.
Value Calculator
| Outcome | Odds | Impl. | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 11/10 | 47.6% | 40% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% | 26% | -1.8% |
| Arsenal | 2/1 | 33.3% | 34% | +0.7% |
Impl. = the bookmaker’s implied probability. Ours = our estimate.
Market probability: Bayern Munich 44% | Draw 25% | Arsenal 31% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
The margin removal is pure arithmetic on the three prices; “our estimate” on top of it is an editorial judgement based on current form and statistics, not a proprietary model. We give Arsenal 34 per cent against the 33.3 per cent implied by 2/1. Arsenal have not conceded in the competition and won the last meeting, while Bayern have dropped points twice since the break, conceded early in both games and are without Olise. Our main tip, both teams to score, we rate at 66 per cent, a little below the 68.0 per cent that 40/85 implies, so it is our most likely outcome rather than a value bet.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Both teams to score @ 40/85
- Harry Kane has scored in nine straight Champions League games
- Bayern have conceded inside the first two minutes in both games since the international break, 2-2 against Augsburg and 3-3 against Viking
- Bayern have scored 19 goals in their last five games
- Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings
The strongest argument against is the Arsenal defence: no goals conceded in this season’s Champions League, and Lille did not have a single shot on target at the Emirates.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Value Tip: Arsenal to win @ 2/1
- Arsenal have won 14 straight games in the Champions League league phase
- Arsenal won the last meeting 3-1, in November 2025
- Bayern have drawn both games since the break and conceded five goals in them
- Michael Olise is suspended after his red card against Viking
The strongest argument against is Bayern’s home record against Arsenal: five wins, one draw and one defeat in Munich. Bayern also dominated in Stavanger despite dropping points, and Arsenal are without Piero Hincapié, while Martín Zubimendi is a doubt.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (2/5)
Our Prediction
Correct score prediction: Bayern Munich 1-2 Arsenal. A scenario in line with both the main tip and the value tip: Kane keeps scoring, but Arsenal win the game.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (2/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market |
|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal to win (Match result) |
| 2 | Both teams to score: Yes |
| Combined odds | 18/5 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Low (2/5)
The combination follows the same scenario as our prediction: Arsenal win and Bayern score. At Casumo it pays 18/5.
First Half: Under 1.5 first-half goals @ 4/7
All three of Arsenal’s goals against Lille came after the break, and they have not conceded in the competition. Bayern have let in early goals since the break, but in a big game between two sides who respect each other we expect one goal at most before half-time.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Longer Shot: Arsenal to lead at half-time @ 5/2
If Arsenal go ahead before the break, as in our scenario of 0-1 at half-time, a half-time bet on Arsenal fits our 1-2 prediction. Bayern have conceded early in both games since the international break. It is a long price, so keep the stake small.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (1/5)
Team News
Bayern Munich
Michael Olise is suspended after his red card in Stavanger, where he had scored before being sent off. Bayern have conceded early in both games since the break: after nine seconds against Augsburg, from a Manuel Neuer error, the fastest goal in Bundesliga history, and in the second minute against Viking. Bayern host RB Leipzig on Saturday.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Ito, Brown; Kimmich, Bischof; Gnabry, Saibari, Luis Díaz; Kane
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Arsenal
Piero Hincapié (ankle) faces a few weeks out and Christos Tzolis (muscle) is also out. Martín Zubimendi (ankle) is close to a return, and William Saliba is back in controlled training. Bukayo Saka was ill before the Lille game and started on the bench, but came on, set up Eberechi Eze’s goal and scored the third himself. Arsenal visit Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Ødegaard, Eze; Saka, Havertz, Madueke
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Recent Form
Bayern Munich
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| D 3-3 | Viking (A) | CL |
| D 2-2 | Augsburg (A) | Bundesliga |
| W 7-0 | Union Berlin (H) | Bundesliga |
| W 2-1 | Elversberg (A) | Bundesliga |
| W 5-0 | Bodø/Glimt (H) | CL |
Three wins and two draws, 19-6 on goals. Both dropped points came after the international break, and Bayern are third in the Bundesliga, two points behind Borussia Dortmund.
Arsenal
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| W 3-0 | Lille (H) | CL |
| W 2-1 | Leeds (H) | PL |
| L 0-3 | Brighton (A) | PL |
| W 4-2 | Ipswich (A) | EFL Cup |
| W 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | PL |
Four wins in five, with the 3-0 defeat at Brighton the only blip. In the Premier League Arsenal are second on 15 points after six games.
The Numbers Behind the Tips
| Champions League, 2 games | Bayern | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 4 |
| xG | 6.22 | 5.52 |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 |
| xG against | 0.89 | 0.68 |
| xG difference | +5.33 | +4.84 |
The figures are totals from the first two Champions League matchdays. Bayern have created 6.22 xG and allowed only 0.89, yet conceded three goals, all in the 3-3 in Stavanger, which points to errors rather than a weak defence. Arsenal have not conceded and have allowed just 0.68 xG, but have scored fewer than their chances deserve: four goals from 5.52 xG. The xG difference leans slightly towards Bayern (+5.33 to +4.84), the strongest statistical argument against our value tip.
Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Head-to-Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 26 November 2025 | Arsenal v Bayern Munich (Champions League, league phase) | 3-1 |
| 17 April 2024 | Bayern Munich v Arsenal (Champions League, quarter-final) | 1-0 |
| 9 April 2024 | Arsenal v Bayern Munich (Champions League, quarter-final) | 2-2 |
| 7 March 2017 | Arsenal v Bayern Munich (Champions League, round of 16) | 1-5 |
| 15 February 2017 | Bayern Munich v Arsenal (Champions League, round of 16) | 5-1 |
The sides have met 15 times, all in the Champions League: Bayern have won eight, Arsenal four, and three ended level. In Munich Bayern have five wins, one draw and one defeat, 2-0 to Arsenal in 2013. Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Champions League: Table after Matchday 2
Arsenal are seventh with six points and have not conceded. Bayern are tenth with four points after the 3-3 in Stavanger and need a win to climb into the top eight, who go straight to the round of 16.
Bayern Munich’s remaining league-phase fixtures: Atlético Madrid (A, 3 November), Lille (A, 25 November), Slavia Prague (H, 8 December), Manchester United (A, 20 January), Real Betis (H, 27 January).
Arsenal’s remaining league-phase fixtures: Slavia Prague (A, 4 November), Borussia Dortmund (H, 24 November), Real Madrid (H, 9 December), Real Betis (A, 20 January), Sabah (H, 27 January).
Our Recent Results
Last Week’s Tips
Main 11/18 | Value 9/18 |
Bet Builder 6/18 | Correct Score 0/18 |
Win Percentage 36.1%ROI -9.93%
Champions League Matchday 2, all 18 games: a record 78 goals, 4.33 per game, beating the previous best of 71 for a single matchday. This recap covers the Champions League games only; the league games from our 13-19 October roundup will be counted once that round is finished. Read our Matchday 2 betting tips.
Results 21 August-14 October
Main 186/302 | Value 160/302 |
Bet Builder 107/302 | Correct Score 32/302 |
Win Percentage 40.1%ROI -10.13%
Matchday 2 Accumulator: The Result
The accumulator fell one selection short: four of the five legs won, but Inter lost 4-3 at home to Club Brugge.
Read the Matchday 2 accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Matches Go?
Manchester City v PSG: three of our four tips landed. PSG led 3-0 at half-time and won 4-2 at the Etihad, so the main tip (Over 2.5 goals, 2/5), the value tip (PSG to win, 8/5) and the Bet Builder (PSG to win + Over 2.5 goals, 73/25) all came in. Only the correct score (1-2) missed. Read the full preview here.
Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Atlético won 2-0 against a United side that played part of the game with ten men. The value tip (Atlético win, 2 Up, 11/10) landed, while the main tip (both teams to score, 4/11), the Bet Builder (Atlético win + both teams to score, 23/10) and the correct score (2-1) lost. Read the full preview here.
FAQs
Who are the favourites in Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
Bayern are favourites at 11/10, with Arsenal at 2/1 and the draw at 13/5 (BetMGM).
What is the prediction for Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
Our main tip is both teams to score at 40/85 and our value tip is Arsenal to win at 2/1. We are going for Bayern Munich 1-2 Arsenal.
When is Bayern Munich v Arsenal?
Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 20:00 BST, at the Allianz Arena in Munich.
How can I watch the match in the UK?
The match is live on TNT Sports.
How did the last meeting end?
Arsenal won 3-1 at home in the league phase on 26 November 2025.
What is at stake in the table?
Arsenal are seventh with six points and Bayern tenth with four after two matchdays. The top eight after eight matchdays go straight to the round of 16.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub and our Champions League betting page. On Tuesday we also have betting tips for PSG v Barcelona.
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