Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Betting Tips & Odds
Champions League, League Phase Matchday 2 | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid | Tuesday 13 October 2026, 20:00 BST
Our main tip is both teams to score at 4/11. The value tip is Atlético Madrid to win at 11/10 with bet365’s 2 Up Early Payout, and we predict a 2-1 home win. Manchester United have never beaten Atlético in four competitive meetings.
Key facts
- Match: Atlético Madrid v Man Utd (Champions League, MD2)
- Kick-off: Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 BST, Metropolitano
- Main tip: BTTS @ 4/11
- Value tip: Atlético win (2 Up) @ 11/10
- Prediction: Atlético 2-1 Man Utd
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Both teams to score | 4/11 | BoyleSports |
| Value Tip | Atlético win (2 Up) | 11/10 | bet365 |
| Correct Score | Atlético 2-1 Man Utd | 17/2 | bet365 |
Odds are from the bookmakers named in the table and were correct at time of writing. The 1X2 table and value calculator use bet365’s prices. Always check current odds before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 29/52 won |
| Value | 29/52 won |
| Bet Builder | 18/52 won |
| Correct Score | 8/52 won |
Win Percentage: 40.4% | ROI: -5.42%
Matchdays 3 and 4 produced eight exact correct scores between them, including Croatia 1-2 Spain, Portugal 2-1 Norway and Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia. Matchday 4 was clearly the better of the two: the main and value tips each landed in 15 of 26 matches, and in ten matches the main tip, value tip and Bet Builder all came in. Goalless draws such as Estonia 0-0 Iceland, Montenegro 0-0 Armenia and Greece 0-0 Germany dragged the numbers down.
Read our full Matchday 3 tips and Matchday 4 tips.
Results 21 August-6 October
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 153/249 won |
| Value | 130/249 won |
| Bet Builder | 86/249 won |
| Correct Score | 25/249 won |
Win Percentage: 39.6% | ROI: -11.48%
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Matchday 3’s accumulator fell two legs short, but Matchday 4’s landed in full.
Read the Matchday 4 accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Croatia v England: a mixed result. The value tip (England to win) landed in style as England won 7-0 in Rijeka, but the main tip (Both teams to score) and the correct score (1-2) both missed because Croatia never found the net. Read the full tip here.
England v Czechia: a near-perfect night. England won 3-0, so the main tip (England to win), the value tip (Both teams to score: No) and the Bet Builder all landed; only the correct score (2-0) missed, by one goal. Read the full tip here.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 11/10 |
| Draw | 14/5 |
| Manchester United | 2/1 |
| Atlético Madrid or draw | 4/11 |
| Draw or Manchester United | 7/10 |
| Atlético Madrid or Manchester United | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1/2 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13/8 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/9 |
| Both teams to score – No | 13/8 |
bet365 prices. Atlético are narrow favourites at 11/10, with Manchester United at 2/1 and the draw at 14/5. The goals markets expect an open game: both teams to score is 4/9 and Over 2.5 goals 1/2.
Value Calculator
| Outcome | Odds | Impl. | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 11/10 | 47.6% | 47% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 14/5 | 26.3% | 23% | -3.3% |
| Manchester United | 2/1 | 33.3% | 30% | -3.3% |
| Atlético Madrid (2 Up) | 11/10 | 47.6% | 49.6% | +2.0% |
Impl. = the bookmaker’s implied probability. Ours = our estimate. 2 Up = bet365’s two-goal Early Payout.
Market probability: Atlético Madrid 44% | Draw 25% | Manchester United 31% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
Removing the margin is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” on top of that is editorial judgement based on current form and underlying numbers, not a proprietary model. In the standard 1X2, Atlético’s 11/10 at bet365 is fractionally short of our 47%. bet365’s 2 Up Early Payout changes that: the bet pays out if Atlético lead by two goals at any point, which we estimate adds about 2.6 percentage points, so 49.6% against 47.6% implied, an edge of about 2.0 points. Atlético have won their last three league games, and United have never beaten them in four competitive meetings; United’s underlying numbers are the main risk. For our main tip, both teams to score, we estimate 70% against 73.3% implied at BoyleSports, so it is chosen for its high probability rather than for value.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Both teams to score @ 4/11
- Manchester United have scored in four of their last five matches and conceded in four of them
- Atlético have scored in four of their last five matches
- The 2022 round-of-16 first leg in Madrid finished 1-1
- United create 1.98 xG per league match, a real threat even against an Atlético defence that allows 1.01
The counter-argument is Atlético’s defence: they kept clean sheets in two of their last three league games, against Osasuna and Real Sociedad, and have conceded only seven goals in seven La Liga matches.
Value Tip: Atlético Madrid to win (2 Up Early Payout) @ 11/10
bet365’s 2 Up Early Payout settles the bet as a winner if Atlético go two goals ahead at any point, even if the match then finishes level or United come back to win.
- Manchester United have never beaten Atlético in four competitive meetings: two draws and two Atlético wins
- Atlético have won their last three league games, including 2-1 against Real Madrid
- United are winless in their last three matches, losing two of them
- Atlético have scored 16 goals in seven La Liga games, 2.3 per match
The strongest argument against is United’s underlying numbers: their xG difference (+0.62 per match) is close to Atlético’s (+0.70), and their results have been worse than their chances. United also opened the league phase with a 4-0 win over Sabah, while Atlético lost 2-1 at Liverpool.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 2-1 Manchester United. A scenario that fits both our main tip and our value tip: a home win with goals at both ends.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (2/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market |
|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid to win (Full time result) |
| 2 | Both teams to score: Yes (Both teams to score) |
| Combined odds | 23/10 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This combination backs the same scenario as our prediction. At BetMGM the combined price is 23/10, longer than the two legs multiplied together (11/10 and 21/50, about 2/1), because the bookmaker treats an Atlético win and a United goal as working slightly against each other.
Team News
Atlético Madrid
Alexander Sørloth is back in full training after a calf injury that has kept him out of all eight of Atlético’s competitive games this season. Alejandro Grimaldo has been training separately after feeling discomfort in the warm-up of Spain’s game against Croatia, and Diego Simeone may rest him at Alavés on Saturday to have him ready for Tuesday. Pablo Barrios is also back after injury.
Predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Oblak; Pubill, Romero, Hancko; Giuliano Simeone, Llorente, Cardoso, Grimaldo; Lee, Baena; David
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Manchester United
Michael Carrick hopes to have Marcus Rashford (hip) and Kobbie Mainoo back after both withdrew from the England squad, and Amad has returned to training after missing the whole season so far with an ankle injury. Benjamin Šeško (shin) and Patrick Dorgu (hamstring, picked up with Denmark) are doubts, Noussair Mazraoui is a concern after an injury on Morocco duty, and Manuel Ugarte is out until 2027 after knee surgery. Bruno Fernandes is fit.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martínez, Shaw; Tielemans, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Recent Form
Atlético Madrid
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| W 2-1 | Real Madrid (H) | La Liga |
| W 4-0 | Osasuna (H) | La Liga |
| W 3-0 | Real Sociedad (A) | La Liga |
| L 1-2 | Liverpool (A) | CL |
| L 0-3 | Athletic Club (A) | La Liga |
Atlético have won their last three league games after defeats at Athletic Club and Liverpool, scoring nine and conceding one in that run.
Manchester United
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| D 1-1 | Fulham (A) | PL |
| L 2-3 | Brighton (H) | EFL Cup |
| L 0-1 | Manchester City (H) | PL |
| W 4-0 | Sabah (H) | CL |
| D 2-2 | Everton (A) | PL |
United’s only win in their last five came against Sabah, and they are 12th in the Premier League with five points from five games.
Underlying Numbers
| Per match | Atlético Madrid | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (total) | 7 | 5 |
| Goals | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| xG | 1.71 | 1.98 |
| Conceded | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| xG against | 1.01 | 1.36 |
| Shots on target | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| Big chances | 3.1 | 2.6 |
The figures cover the league season so far: La Liga for Atlético (seven games) and the Premier League for United (five). Atlético have scored four goals more than their chances suggest (16 from 12.0 xG), while United have scored fewer (8 from 9.9) and conceded more than their xG against (8 from 6.8). In the Champions League opener, United created 3.5 xG against Sabah and Atlético 0.9 at Liverpool.
Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 15 March 2022 | Manchester United v Atlético Madrid (Champions League, round of 16) | 0-1 |
| 23 February 2022 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United (Champions League, round of 16) | 1-1 |
| 6 November 1991 | Manchester United v Atlético Madrid (Cup Winners’ Cup) | 1-1 |
| 23 October 1991 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United (Cup Winners’ Cup) | 3-0 |
Manchester United have never beaten Atlético in four competitive meetings, with two draws and two Atlético wins. Atlético knocked United out of the Champions League round of 16 in 2022, drawing 1-1 in Madrid and winning 1-0 at Old Trafford. Both teams scored in two of the four meetings.
Champions League: League Phase Table after Matchday 1
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Liverpool | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Prague | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Club Brugge | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lille | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Inter | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Napoli | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Viking | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Manchester United are fourth after their 4-0 win over Sabah, while Atlético are 25th after losing 2-1 at Liverpool. The top eight after eight matches go straight into the round of 16, 9th to 24th go into the knockout play-offs and the rest are eliminated.
Atlético Madrid’s remaining league-phase fixtures: Stuttgart (A, 20 October), Bayern Munich (H, 3 November), Viking (H, 25 November), PSV (A, 9 December), Bodø/Glimt (A, 19 January), Fenerbahçe (H, 27 January).
Manchester United’s remaining league-phase fixtures: Como (A, 21 October), Roma (H, 3 November), Sporting CP (A, 25 November), RB Leipzig (H, 8 December), Bayern Munich (H, 20 January), Villarreal (A, 27 January).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the favourites in Atlético Madrid v Manchester United?
Atlético are narrow favourites at 11/10, with Manchester United at 2/1 and the draw at 14/5 (bet365).
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid v Manchester United?
Our main tip is both teams to score at 4/11. The value tip is Atlético Madrid to win. We predict a 2-1 home win.
When is Atlético Madrid v Manchester United?
Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 BST, at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid, in Matchday 2 of the Champions League league phase.
Where can I watch Atlético Madrid v Manchester United?
The match is live on Amazon Prime Video in the UK.
What happened in the last meeting?
Atlético won 1-0 at Old Trafford in March 2022 to knock United out of the round of 16, after a 1-1 draw in Madrid.
What is at stake in the table?
United are fourth after Matchday 1 and Atlético 25th. The top eight after eight matches go straight into the round of 16.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub and our Champions League betting page, or read our tips for every match this matchday.
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