Croatia v England: Betting Tips & Odds
Nations League, Group A3 | Stadion HNK Rijeka | Saturday 3 October 2026, 17:00 BST
Our main tip is Both Teams To Score at 10/11. The value tip is England to win at 15/14. We’re calling it Croatia 1-2 England as Slaven Bilić takes charge of Croatia for the first time since his second spell began.
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Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Both teams to score – Yes | 10/11 |
| Value Tip | England to win | 15/14 |
| Correct Score | Croatia 1-2 England | – |
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 17/26 won |
| Value | 11/26 won |
| Bet Builder | 9/26 won |
| Correct Score | 5/26 won |
Win Percentage: 40.4% | ROI: -10.60%
Five correct scores landed exactly: Andorra 1-2 Malta, Sweden 2-1 Romania, Faroe Islands 1-1 Kazakhstan, Czechia 1-2 Croatia and North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland.
Read the full analysis for Matchday 1 here.
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Results 21 August-26 September
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 108/171 won |
| Value | 89/171 won |
| Bet Builder | 59/171 won |
| Correct Score | 15/171 won |
Win Percentage: 39.6% | ROI: -14.46%
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Four of five selections came in: Finland, Portugal, Slovakia and Austria all won as required. Iceland, the fourth leg, could only draw 1-1 with Estonia, so the accumulator falls one leg short of a full house.
Read the full tip with the accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
England v Spain: a mixed week. The main tip (Both Teams To Score) and the value tip (Spain to win) both landed as Spain won 2-3 at Wembley, but the correct score missed, we had it at 1-2. Read the full tip here.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Croatia | 50/19 |
| Draw | 58/21 |
| England | 15/14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25/24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15/17 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 10/11 |
| Both teams to score – No | 1/1 |
England are away favourites at 15/14, with Croatia out at 50/19 and the draw close behind at 58/21. Both Teams To Score at 10/11 is the shortest price on the board, pointing to a game where goals at both ends look at least as likely as an England win itself.
Value Calculator
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to win | 50/19 | 27.5% | 27% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 58/21 | 26.6% | 26% | -0.6% |
| England to win | 15/14 | 48.3% | 47% | -1.3% |
Market probability: Croatia 27% | Draw 26% | England 47% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
The de-vigging itself is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” beyond that is editorial judgement built from current form, not a proprietary model. We stay close to the market here: England have the stronger squad on paper, but Croatia are playing their first match under a returning Slaven Bilić, a manager with a real history of springing results against this exact opponent.
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Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 10/11
- England scored in every one of their five World Cup matches this summer, including a 4-2 win over this same Croatia side in the group stage
- Croatia have scored in three of their last five matches, despite the 1-2 defeat away to Czechia in their Nations League opener
- Croatia’s attack, built around Kramarić, Perišić and the returning Modrić, has found the net against elite opposition all summer, including twice against Portugal at the World Cup
Both sides have shown they can score against strong opposition recently, and the head-to-head history backs this up too: their World Cup meeting this summer produced six goals between them.
Value Tip: England to win @ 15/14
- England beat this exact Croatia side 4-2 at the World Cup this summer, the most recent meeting between the two nations
- Croatia are adjusting to a new head coach in Slaven Bilić, appointed after Zlatko Dalić’s resignation following the World Cup exit to Portugal
- England arrive full of confidence after reaching the World Cup semi-final before a big win over France in the third-place play-off
The gap between the sides is real but not overwhelming, and the market’s own pricing reflects that: England are favourites, but this is no landslide.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Croatia 1-2 England. A scenario consistent with both the main tip and the value tip: England win on the road in a match with goals at both ends.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | England to win | 15/14 |
| 2 | Both teams to score – Yes | 10/11 |
| Combined | 27/10 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This pairs an England win with goals at both ends, consistent with how this exact fixture played out at the World Cup this summer. The combined price at 27/10 is shorter than multiplying the two individual legs would suggest, reflecting the real correlation between an England win and goals at both ends.
Team News
Croatia
Slaven Bilić takes charge of Croatia for the first time in his second spell in the role, replacing Zlatko Dalić, who resigned after Croatia’s World Cup exit to Portugal in the round of 32. Bilić previously managed Croatia between 2006 and 2012, and has since had spells at West Ham, West Brom and Watford in England, giving him first-hand experience of this opponent. Luka Modrić, now 41, has been confirmed as continuing under the new coach. Croatia’s spine from the World Cup remains largely intact: Livaković in goal, Gvardiol at the back, and Kramarić and Perišić leading the attack.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Livaković; Stanišić, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol, Šutalo; Modrić, Sučić, Pašalić; Kramarić, Budimir, Perišić.
Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off; this is our best estimate from the most recent confirmed lineup, not official team news for this match.
England
England’s summer ended in the World Cup semi-final, beaten by Argentina, before a 6-4 win over France in the third-place play-off. Thomas Tuchel’s squad for this window was hit by a wave of withdrawals earlier in the break (Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento all pulled out through injury), with Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White and Everton’s James Garner drafted in. Harry Kane, England’s talisman throughout the World Cup, recently became the fastest player to reach 100 Bundesliga goals. England are also tied for second in the whole tournament for passing accuracy (90%), a sign of the control Tuchel’s side have shown even amid the squad disruption. This is England’s third match of an extended international window, following the defeat to Spain in Matchday 1 and a trip to Prague to face Czechia in Matchday 2, part of our full Matchday 2 roundup.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Trafford; Quansah, Konsa, Guéhi, O’Reilly; Anderson, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Predicted lineup is not confirmed and may change before kick-off; this is our best estimate from the most recent confirmed lineup, not official team news for this match.
Recent Form
Croatia
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| L 1-2 | Czechia (A) | Nations League |
| L 1-2 | Portugal (N) | World Cup, round of 32 |
| W 2-1 | Ghana (N) | World Cup, group stage |
| L 2-4 | England (N) | World Cup, group stage |
| W 1-0 | Panama (N) | World Cup, group stage |
A mixed summer: two wins and a narrow group-stage loss to England before elimination by Portugal in the round of 32, then a loss on the road to open the Nations League.
England
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| L 2-3 | Spain (H) | Nations League |
| W 6-4 | France (A) | World Cup third-place play-off |
| L 1-2 | Argentina (H) | World Cup semi-final |
| W 2-1 | Norway (A, AET) | World Cup quarter-final |
| W 3-2 | Mexico (A) | World Cup round of 16 |
England’s Nations League opener against Spain is covered in full in our England v Spain tip. Before that, a deep World Cup run ended at the semi-final stage, with a big win over France to close out the tournament in third place.
Croatia v England: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 20 June 2026 | England v Croatia (World Cup) | 4-2 |
| 13 June 2021 | England v Croatia (Euro) | 1-0 |
| 18 November 2018 | England v Croatia (Nations League) | 2-1 |
| 12 October 2018 | Croatia v England (Nations League) | 0-0 |
| 11 July 2018 | Croatia v England (World Cup semi-final) | 2-1 |
England have won three and drawn one of the last five meetings, including a 4-2 win over Croatia at this summer’s World Cup, their most recent encounter.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favourite in Croatia v England?
England are favourites away at 15/14. Croatia are priced at 50/19, with the draw at 58/21.
What is the prediction for Croatia v England?
Our main tip is Both Teams To Score at 10/11. The value tip is England to win. We expect Croatia 1-2 England.
When is Croatia v England?
Saturday 3 October 2026, kick-off 17:00 BST, at Stadion HNK Rijeka (known to fans as Rujevica), for Group A3 of the Nations League.
Who is Croatia’s new head coach?
Slaven Bilić, back for a second spell in charge after Zlatko Dalić’s resignation following the World Cup exit. Bilić previously managed Croatia from 2006 to 2012 and has since managed West Ham, West Brom and Watford in England.
What do the recent meetings between Croatia and England show?
England have won three of the last five meetings and drawn one, including a 4-2 win over Croatia at this summer’s World Cup.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub, or check our Nations League Matchday 1 roundup here for how the opening round played out.
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