Betting Tips & Odds: Nations League Matchday 1
24 to 26 September 2026With no club football this week, the international break brings the opening matchday of this season's Nations League across all four divisions. Here are our tips for every match, with current odds on 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score.
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Betting Tips & Odds: Nations League Matchday 1
24 to 26 September 2026
With no club football this week, the international break brings the opening matchday of this season’s Nations League across all four divisions. Here are our tips for every match, with current odds on 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score.
Editor’s Pick: This Week’s Accumulator
Five selections from this week’s matches, for anyone looking to combine multiple favourites into a bigger overall price. This is our own editorial pick, not a guarantee.
- Finland to win (v San Marino) @ 1/17
- Portugal to win (v Wales) @ 3/13
- Slovakia to win (v Moldova) @ 3/11
- Iceland to win (v Estonia) @ 1/3
- Austria to win (v Israel) @ 7/20
Combined odds: roughly 2/1
A £10 stake would return around £21 including the stake. A single losing leg, though, means the whole accumulator is lost.
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 28/52 won |
| Value | 29/52 won |
| Bet Builder | 14/52 won |
| Correct Score | 2/52 won |
Win Percentage: 35.1% | ROI: -11.67%
A rough week for favourites across the board. Alavés, Omonia, Milan, Celtic, Bologna, Athletic Bilbao, Sporting, Tottenham, Brighton, Leeds and Fulham all dropped points as favourites. Only two correct scores landed exactly: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon and Monaco 2-1 Lens.
Read the full analysis for 15-21 September here.
Results 21 August-21 September
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 91/145 won |
| Value | 78/145 won |
| Bet Builder | 50/145 won |
| Correct Score | 10/145 won |
Win Percentage: 39.5% | ROI: -15.16%
This figure has now been fully verified match by match across all four periods (21 August-7 September, 8-14 September, Champions League Matchday 1, and 15-21 September), replacing an earlier inherited baseline that turned out to be inaccurate. The corrected 21 August-7 September baseline is 33 matches (Main 19/33, Value 15/33, Bet Builder 11/33, Correct Score 4/33), down from the 67 matches previously reported.
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Four of five selections came in: Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Real Madrid all won as required. Sporting, the final leg, could only draw 2-2 with Arouca, so the accumulator falls one leg short of a full house.
Read the full tip with the accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Bournemouth v Liverpool: a mixed week. The main tip landed with Liverpool winning 1-0, but the value tip (Both Teams To Score) and the correct score both missed as Liverpool’s goal was enough on its own. Read the full tip here.
Betting Tips Available for
Saturday 26 September
England v Spain ★
The reigning world champions travel to Wembley. Full analysis, value calculator and verified Bet Builder are in our separate tip. Read the full tip here.
Group A3: Czechia v Croatia
Fortuna Arena, Prague | Saturday 26 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Czechia 31% | Draw 27% | Croatia 43%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Croatia to win | 23/20 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Croatia to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Czechia 1-2 Croatia | – | 2/5 |
Croatia are away favourites but not by a wide margin against a Czechia side at home.
Group B1: Slovenia v Scotland
Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana | Saturday 26 September, 14:00 BST
Market Probability: Slovenia 35% | Draw 29% | Scotland 36%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Both teams to score | 15/17 | 3/5 |
| Value | Scotland to win | 29/20 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Scotland to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Slovenia 1-2 Scotland | – | 2/5 |
A genuinely even match where the market can barely separate the two sides.
Group B1: North Macedonia v Switzerland
National Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje | Saturday 26 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: North Macedonia 14% | Draw 20% | Switzerland 66%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Switzerland to win | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Switzerland to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland | – | 3/5 |
Switzerland are heavy away favourites against a North Macedonia side ranked well below them.
Group C1: San Marino v Finland
Note: our accumulator pick this week.
San Marino Stadium, Serravalle | Saturday 26 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: San Marino 4% | Draw 13% | Finland 84%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Finland to win | 1/17 | 5/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 7/22 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Finland to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | San Marino 0-4 Finland | – | 3/5 |
Finland are about as overwhelming a favourite as this operation ever covers, against a San Marino side ranked bottom of the entire UEFA pyramid.
Group C1: Albania v Belarus
Air Albania Stadium, Tirana | Saturday 26 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Albania 65% | Draw 22% | Belarus 13%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Albania to win | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 1/1 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Albania to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Albania 3-0 Belarus | – | 3/5 |
Albania are clear home favourites against Belarus.
Group C3: Slovakia v Moldova
Note: our accumulator pick this week.
Tatran Stadium, Prešov | Saturday 26 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Slovakia 72% | Draw 18% | Moldova 10%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Slovakia to win | 3/11 | 5/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Slovakia to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Slovakia 3-0 Moldova | – | 3/5 |
Slovakia are overwhelming home favourites against Moldova.
Group C4: Bulgaria v Luxembourg
Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv | Saturday 26 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Bulgaria 51% | Draw 28% | Luxembourg 21%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Bulgaria to win | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 1/1 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Bulgaria to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Bulgaria 2-1 Luxembourg | – | 2/5 |
Bulgaria are home favourites but not by a wide margin against Luxembourg.
Group C4: Iceland v Estonia
Note: our accumulator pick this week.
Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík | Saturday 26 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Iceland 69% | Draw 21% | Estonia 10%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Iceland to win | 1/3 | 5/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 5/6 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Iceland to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Iceland 3-0 Estonia | – | 3/5 |
Iceland are clear home favourites against Estonia.
Group C3: Faroe Islands v Kazakhstan
Tórsvøllur, Tórshavn | Saturday 26 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Faroe Islands 36% | Draw 29% | Kazakhstan 36%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Both teams to score | 1/1 | 3/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 26/19 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Both teams to score + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Faroe Islands 1-1 Kazakhstan | – | 2/5 |
About as even a match as this week offers, with the market unable to separate the two sides at all.
🏆 Editor’s Pick
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Friday 25 September
Group A1: Italy v Belgium
Stadio Olimpico, Rome | Friday 25 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Italy 43% | Draw 26% | Belgium 30%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Italy to win | 21/20 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 2/3 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Italy to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Italy 2-1 Belgium | – | 2/5 |
Italy are slight home favourites in Rome against a Belgium side that reached the World Cup quarter-finals over the summer.
Group B4: Sweden v Romania
Strawberry Arena, Solna | Friday 25 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Sweden 60% | Draw 23% | Romania 17%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Sweden to win | 12/23 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 11/20 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Sweden to win + Over 2.5 goals | 19/17 | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Sweden 2-1 Romania | 15/2 | 2/5 |
Sweden are clear home favourites against a Romania side that didn’t qualify for this summer’s World Cup.
Group A1: Türkiye v France
Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli | Friday 25 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Türkiye 18% | Draw 22% | France 60%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | France to win | 11/23 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 8/17 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | France to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Türkiye 1-3 France | – | 2/5 |
France are clear away favourites against a Türkiye side at home.
Group B2: Georgia v Northern Ireland
Boris Paichadze National Stadium, Tbilisi | Friday 25 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Georgia 50% | Draw 27% | Northern Ireland 24%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Georgia to win | 17/20 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 5/6 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Georgia to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Georgia 2-1 Northern Ireland | – | 2/5 |
Georgia are home favourites against Northern Ireland.
Group B2: Hungary v Ukraine
Puskás Aréna, Budapest | Friday 25 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Hungary 43% | Draw 27% | Ukraine 30%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Hungary to win | 14/13 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 10/13 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Hungary to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Hungary 2-1 Ukraine | – | 2/5 |
Hungary are home favourites but not by a wide margin against Ukraine.
Group B4: Poland v Bosnia and Herzegovina
PGE Narodowy, Warsaw | Friday 25 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Poland 58% | Draw 23% | Bosnia and Herzegovina 18%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Poland to win | 9/17 | 4/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 17/20 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Poland to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Poland 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | – | 2/5 |
Poland are clear home favourites against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Group C2: Armenia v Latvia
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan | Friday 25 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Armenia 54% | Draw 26% | Latvia 20%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Armenia to win | 7/10 | 4/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 10/13 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Armenia to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Armenia 2-1 Latvia | – | 2/5 |
Armenia are clear home favourites against Latvia.
Group C2: Montenegro v Cyprus
Gradski Stadion, Podgorica | Friday 25 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Montenegro 62% | Draw 22% | Cyprus 15%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Montenegro to win | 8/19 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 10/11 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Montenegro to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Montenegro 2-0 Cyprus | – | 3/5 |
Montenegro are clear home favourites against Cyprus.
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Thursday 24 September
Group D1: Andorra v Malta
Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella | Thursday 24 September, 17:00 BST
Market Probability: Andorra 29% | Draw 33% | Malta 38%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Both teams to score | 5/4 | 3/5 |
| Value | Malta to win | 7/5 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Malta to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Andorra 1-2 Malta | – | 2/5 |
A genuinely open match between two of the competition’s lowest-ranked sides.
Group A2: Netherlands v Germany
Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Netherlands 41% | Draw 26% | Germany 33%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Netherlands to win | 5/4 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 8/17 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Netherlands to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Netherlands 2-1 Germany | – | 2/5 |
Netherlands are home favourites but not by a wide margin against Germany.
Group A2: Serbia v Greece
Stadion Rajko Mitić, Belgrade | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Serbia 37% | Draw 29% | Greece 34%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Both teams to score | 10/13 | 3/5 |
| Value | Serbia to win | 29/20 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Serbia to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Serbia 2-1 Greece | – | 2/5 |
A genuinely even match where Serbia have a slight home edge.
Group A4: Norway v Denmark
Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Norway 48% | Draw 27% | Denmark 25%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Norway to win | 9/10 | 3/5 |
| Value | Both teams to score | 9/14 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Norway to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Norway 2-1 Denmark | – | 2/5 |
Norway are slight home favourites against Denmark.
Group A4: Portugal v Wales
Note: our accumulator pick this week.
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Portugal 74% | Draw 16% | Wales 9%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Portugal to win | 3/13 | 5/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 12/23 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Portugal to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Portugal 3-0 Wales | – | 3/5 |
Portugal are overwhelming home favourites against Wales.
Group B3: Austria v Israel
Note: our accumulator pick this week.
Raiffeisen Arena, Linz | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Austria 65% | Draw 20% | Israel 15%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Austria to win | 7/20 | 5/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 12/23 | 4/5 |
| Bet Builder | Austria to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Austria 3-0 Israel | – | 3/5 |
Austria are clear home favourites against Israel.
Group B3: Kosovo v Republic of Ireland
Fadil Vokrri Stadium, Pristina | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Kosovo 33% | Draw 28% | Republic of Ireland 38%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Both teams to score | 15/17 | 3/5 |
| Value | Republic of Ireland to win | 13/10 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Republic of Ireland to win + Both teams to score | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Kosovo 1-2 Republic of Ireland | – | 2/5 |
A genuinely open match where Ireland have a slight edge as the away side.
Group D2: Liechtenstein v Lithuania
Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz | Thursday 24 September, 19:45 BST
Market Probability: Liechtenstein 11% | Draw 22% | Lithuania 67%
| Tip | Market | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | Lithuania to win | 5/14 | 4/5 |
| Value | Over 2.5 goals | 13/11 | 3/5 |
| Bet Builder | Lithuania to win + Over 2.5 goals | – | 3/5 |
| Correct Score | Liechtenstein 0-3 Lithuania | – | 3/5 |
Lithuania are clear away favourites against Liechtenstein.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is there no club football this week?
This is a FIFA international break, with the opening matchday of the 2026-27 Nations League taking priority across the continent instead of domestic leagues and cups.
Which are the clearest favourites of the week?
Finland (1/17 against San Marino), Portugal (3/13 against Wales) and Slovakia (3/11 against Moldova) have the shortest prices of the week.
Which match is the most even?
Faroe Islands v Kazakhstan is the most even match of the week, with the market barely able to separate the two sides across any market.
Where can I watch the matches in the UK?
TV rights vary by fixture and are updated regularly. Always check your streaming provider for the latest broadcast details ahead of each match.
What’s the best goals bet of the week?
San Marino v Finland (Over 2.5 at roughly 7/22), Slovakia v Moldova and Iceland v Estonia are among the strongest goals markets of the week.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub, or check our Nations League hub for more on this week’s fixtures.
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