Betting Tips & Odds: Nations League Matchday 4

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Editor’s Pick: This Week’s Accumulator

Last Week’s Tips

Win Percentage: 37.5% | ROI: -2.79%

Six goalless draws made Matchday 2 a tough round for any tip that needed goals: Bulgaria-Estonia, Finland-Belarus, Northern Ireland-Hungary, Georgia-Ukraine, Latvia-Cyprus and Gibraltar-Andorra all finished 0-0. Two correct scores landed exactly: Serbia 1-2 Netherlands and Norway 1-2 Portugal.

Read the full analysis for Matchday 2 here.

Results 21 August-29 September

Win Percentage: 39.3% | ROI: -12.90%

This Week’s Accumulator: The Result

Four of five selections came in: Albania, Spain, Slovakia and Austria all won as required. Germany, the third leg, lost 1-0 at home to Greece, so the accumulator falls one leg short.

Read the full tip with the accumulator here.

How Did Our Highlight Match Go?

Czechia v England: a mixed result. The main tip landed as England won 2-0 in Prague, but the value tip (Over 2.5 goals) and the correct score (1-2) both missed in a two-goal game. Read the full tip here.

Tuesday 6 October

Group C3: Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands

Astana Arena, Astana | Tuesday 6 October, 15:00 BST

Market Probability: Kazakhstan 48% | Draw 28% | Faroe Islands 24%

Kazakhstan are clear home favourites against Faroe Islands. The reverse fixture ended 1-1.

Group B1: Switzerland v North Macedonia

Note: our accumulator pick this week.

Swissporarena, Lucerne | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Switzerland 63% | Draw 21% | North Macedonia 16%

Switzerland are clear home favourites against North Macedonia. In the reverse fixture, Switzerland won 3-0. They have scored six goals without conceding in their first two games. After Matchday 2, Switzerland lead Group B1 on 6 points.

Group C1: Albania v San Marino

Note: our accumulator pick this week.

Air Albania Stadium, Tirana | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Albania 88% | Draw 8% | San Marino 4%

Albania are clear home favourites against San Marino. In the reverse fixture, Albania won 3-0. After Matchday 2, Albania lead Group C1 on 6 points.

Group C1: Belarus v Finland

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest (neutral venue) | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Belarus 25% | Draw 29% | Finland 46%

Finland are clear away favourites against Belarus. The reverse fixture ended goalless.

Group C4: Luxembourg v Bulgaria

Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Luxembourg 37% | Draw 28% | Bulgaria 34%

A genuinely even match, with little to separate the two sides. In the reverse fixture, Luxembourg won 2-1.

Group C3: Moldova v Slovakia

Stadionul Zimbru, Chișinău | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Moldova 18% | Draw 25% | Slovakia 57%

Slovakia are clear away favourites against Moldova. In the reverse fixture, Slovakia won 2-0. After Matchday 2, Slovakia lead Group C3 on 6 points.

Group C4: Estonia v Iceland

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Estonia 24% | Draw 28% | Iceland 48%

Iceland are clear away favourites against Estonia. The reverse fixture ended 1-1. After Matchday 2, Iceland lead Group C4 on 4 points.

Group A3: Croatia v Spain

Note: our accumulator pick this week.

Stadion Poljud, Split | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Croatia 12% | Draw 17% | Spain 71%

Spain are clear away favourites against Croatia. In the reverse fixture, Spain won 4-1. After Matchday 2, Spain lead Group A3 on 6 points.

England v Czechia ★

England host Czechia at Wembley a week after winning 2-0 in Prague. Full analysis, value calculator, Bet Builder and the Group A3 table are in our separate tip. Read the full tip here.

Group B1: Scotland v Slovenia

Hampden Park, Glasgow | Tuesday 6 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Scotland 45% | Draw 28% | Slovenia 26%

Scotland are home favourites, but not by a wide margin, against Slovenia. The reverse fixture ended goalless.

Monday 5 October

Group C2: Cyprus v Latvia

GSP Stadium, Nicosia | Monday 5 October, 17:00 BST

Market Probability: Cyprus 41% | Draw 29% | Latvia 30%

Cyprus are home favourites, but not by a wide margin, against Latvia. The reverse fixture ended goalless.

Group B2: Ukraine v Hungary

Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava (neutral venue) | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Ukraine 39% | Draw 27% | Hungary 34%

A genuinely even match, with little to separate the two sides. In the reverse fixture, Ukraine won 1-0.

Group B4: Romania v Sweden

National Arena, Bucharest | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Romania 26% | Draw 23% | Sweden 51%

Sweden are clear away favourites against Romania. In the reverse fixture, Sweden won 2-1. After Matchday 2, Sweden lead Group B4 on 6 points.

Group B2: Northern Ireland v Georgia

Windsor Park, Belfast | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Northern Ireland 37% | Draw 27% | Georgia 35%

A genuinely even match, with little to separate the two sides. In the reverse fixture, Northern Ireland won 1-0. After Matchday 2, Northern Ireland lead Group B2 on 4 points.

Group C2: Montenegro v Armenia

Gradski Stadion, Podgorica | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Montenegro 54% | Draw 26% | Armenia 20%

Montenegro are clear home favourites against Armenia. In the reverse fixture, Montenegro won 3-2. After Matchday 2, Montenegro lead Group C2 on 6 points.

Group A1: France v Belgium

Note: our accumulator pick this week.

Stade de France, Saint-Denis | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: France 62% | Draw 20% | Belgium 18%

France are clear home favourites against Belgium. In the reverse fixture, France won 1-0. After Matchday 2, France lead Group A1 on 6 points.

Group A1: Italy v Türkiye

Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Italy 59% | Draw 22% | Türkiye 19%

Italy are clear home favourites against Türkiye. In the reverse fixture, Italy won 4-1.

Group B4: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland

Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica | Monday 5 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Bosnia and Herzegovina 28% | Draw 26% | Poland 46%

Poland are away favourites, but not by a wide margin, against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reverse fixture ended goalless.

Sunday 4 October

Group D2: Azerbaijan v Lithuania

Ganja City Stadium, Ganja | Sunday 4 October, 14:00 BST

Market Probability: Azerbaijan 42% | Draw 27% | Lithuania 30%

Azerbaijan are home favourites, but not by a wide margin, against Lithuania. The reverse fixture ended 1-1. After Matchday 2, Lithuania lead Group D2 on 4 points.

Group B3: Kosovo v Austria

Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina | Sunday 4 October, 17:00 BST

Market Probability: Kosovo 22% | Draw 27% | Austria 51%

Austria are clear away favourites against Kosovo. In the reverse fixture, Austria won 3-1. After Matchday 2, Austria lead Group B3 on 6 points.

Group D1: Malta v Andorra

National Stadium, Ta’ Qali | Sunday 4 October, 17:00 BST

Market Probability: Malta 55% | Draw 26% | Andorra 20%

Malta are clear home favourites against Andorra. In the reverse fixture, Malta won 2-1. After Matchday 2, Malta lead Group D1 on 3 points.

Group A4: Portugal v Norway

Estádio do Dragão, Porto | Sunday 4 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Portugal 54% | Draw 23% | Norway 23%

Portugal are clear home favourites against Norway. In the reverse fixture, Portugal won 2-1. Cristiano Ronaldo, who spent the whole of the reverse fixture on the bench, has since left Portugal’s camp in Copenhagen after Jorge Jesus said he would not start against Denmark. After Matchday 2, Portugal lead Group A4 on 6 points.

Group A2: Netherlands v Serbia

Note: our accumulator pick this week.

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven | Sunday 4 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Netherlands 77% | Draw 15% | Serbia 8%

Netherlands are clear home favourites against Serbia. In the reverse fixture, Netherlands won 2-1.

Group A2: Greece v Germany

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki | Sunday 4 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Greece 26% | Draw 23% | Germany 51%

Germany are clear away favourites against Greece. In the reverse fixture, Greece won 1-0. That 1-0 win was Greece’s first ever victory over Germany. After Matchday 2, Greece lead Group A2 on 6 points.

Group B3: Republic of Ireland v Israel

TSC Arena, Bačka Topola, Serbia | Sunday 4 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Republic of Ireland 51% | Draw 26% | Israel 24%

Republic of Ireland are clear home favourites against Israel. In the reverse fixture, Republic of Ireland won 3-0.

Group A4: Wales v Denmark

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff | Sunday 4 October, 19:45 BST

Market Probability: Wales 25% | Draw 24% | Denmark 51%

Denmark are clear away favourites against Wales. In the reverse fixture, Denmark won 2-0.

Standings after Matchday 2

Where teams are level on points, head-to-head comes before goal difference in the Nations League. That is why Belgium sit above Italy (A1), Norway above Denmark (A4) and Kosovo above the Republic of Ireland (B3), despite Ireland’s better goal difference.

See how the opening rounds played out in our Matchday 1 roundup and Matchday 2 roundup.

Group A1

Group A2

Group A3

Group A4

Group B1

Group B2

Group B3

Group B4

Group C1

Group C2

Group C3

Group C4

Group D1

Group D2

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is there no club football this week?

This is still the same extended international break, and Matchday 4 is its final round. Club football returns once the window closes, with the next Nations League matchdays in November.

Which are the clearest favourites of the week?

Albania (1/20 v San Marino) and the Netherlands (6/23 v Serbia) are among the shortest prices of the week.

Which match is the most even?

Northern Ireland v Georgia is the most even match of the week, with the market barely able to separate the two sides.

Where can I watch the matches in the UK?

TV rights vary by fixture and are updated regularly. Always check your streaming provider for the latest broadcast details ahead of each match.

Where can I see the group tables?

Every group table after Matchday 2 is listed in the standings section above, just before these questions.

For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub, or catch up on our Matchday 3 roundup.

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