Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Betting Tips & Odds
Premier League, Matchweek 7 | City Ground, Nottingham | Sunday 18 October 2026, 16:30 BST
Nottingham Forest have not scored in any of their three home league games this season, and now the champions come to the City Ground. Our main tip is Arsenal to win at 11/20, the value tip is both teams to score: No at 4/5, and we predict a 0-2 away win.
Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Arsenal to win | 11/20 | bet365 |
| Value Tip | Both teams to score: No | 4/5 | BetMGM |
| Correct Score | Forest 0-2 Arsenal | 13/2 | BoyleSports |
| First half | Under 1.5 first-half goals | 4/9 | BoyleSports |
| Longer shot | Arsenal to win by exactly 2 | 7/2 | BoyleSports |
Odds are from the bookmakers named in the table and were correct at time of writing. The 1X2 table and value calculator use BetMGM’s prices. Always check current odds before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
| Main | 22/35 won |
| Value | 21/35 won |
| Bet Builder | 15/35 won |
| Correct Score | 7/35 won |
Win Percentage: 46.4% | ROI: -0.96%
Over 9-12 October the main tip landed in 22 of 35 games and the value tip in 21, and 7 exact correct scores came in, including Inter 3-0 Parma, Lens 2-1 Lyon and Midtjylland 2-1 FC Copenhagen.
Read our full 9-12 October tips.
Results 21 August-12 October
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 175/284 won |
| Value | 151/284 won |
| Bet Builder | 101/284 won |
| Correct Score | 32/284 won |
Win Percentage: 40.4% | ROI: -10.15%
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Our accumulator fell one leg short: four of the five selections won, but Borussia Dortmund were held 2-2 by Werder Bremen.
Read the 9-12 October accumulator here.
How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Liverpool v Manchester City: a strong afternoon. City won 3-0 at Anfield, so the main tip (Under 3.5 goals at 8/15), the value tip (City to win at 6/4) and the Bet Builder (3/1) all landed; only the correct score (1-2) missed. Read the full preview here.
Forest Still Waiting for a Home Goal as the Champions Arrive
Forest have played four games at the City Ground this season and failed to score in any of them: 0-1 and 0-2 against Leeds, 0-0 against Tottenham and 0-1 against Coventry. Chances have not been the problem, as their five league goals come from 10.1 xG, the biggest shortfall in the Premier League. Oliver Glasner’s side lost 3-1 at Crystal Palace on Sunday, on the Austrian’s first return to his old club, and sit 15th with five points. Arsenal are second, three points behind Manchester City, after coming from behind to beat Leeds 2-1, and they host Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday before the trip to Nottingham.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 9/2 |
| Draw | 3/1 |
| Arsenal | 8/15 |
| Nottingham Forest or draw | 5/4 |
| Draw or Arsenal | 2/13 |
| Nottingham Forest or Arsenal | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17/20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17/20 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 17/20 |
| Both teams to score – No | 4/5 |
BetMGM prices. Arsenal are clear favourites at 8/15, with Forest at 9/2 and the draw at 3/1. The goals markets are evenly balanced: Over and Under 2.5 are both 17/20, and both teams to score: No is 4/5.
Value Calculator
| Outcome | Odds | Impl. | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 9/2 | 18.2% | 16% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 3/1 | 25.0% | 24% | -1.0% |
| Arsenal | 8/15 | 65.2% | 60% | -5.2% |
Impl. = the bookmaker’s implied probability. Ours = our estimate.
Market probability: Nottingham Forest 17% | Draw 23% | Arsenal 60% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
Removing the margin is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” on top of that is editorial judgement based on current form and underlying numbers, not a proprietary model. On the result we agree with the market: Arsenal are the likeliest winners, but at 11/20 there is no value, so we pick them for probability rather than price (60% against the 64.5% implied by bet365’s price). The value is in both teams to score: No, which we rate at 58% against the 55.6% implied at BetMGM: Forest have not scored at home in the league, and Arsenal concede the fewest chances in the division.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Arsenal to win @ 11/20
- Arsenal have the best underlying numbers in the Premier League, with an xG difference of +5.9 after six games
- They have won five of their six league games, and both of their away league wins came without conceding
- Forest have lost three of their six league games and are without Milenković, Igor Jesus and Savona
- Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws
The strongest argument against is the City Ground itself: Arsenal drew 0-0 on two of their last three visits, and they play Lille on Tuesday with a trip to Bayern Munich three days after this game.
Value Tip: Both teams to score: No @ 4/5
This tip wins if at least one of the two teams fails to score.
- Forest have failed to score in all four of their home games this season, in the league and the League Cup
- Arsenal concede the fewest chances in the Premier League: 5.3 xG in six games
- Four of the last five meetings ended with at least one side failing to score
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in two of their three away league games
The risk is Forest’s chance creation: their 10.1 xG is among the highest in the league, they scored after three minutes at Selhurst Park and they have already scored twice at Anfield this season.
Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Arsenal @ 13/2. A scenario that fits both our main tip and our value tip: an away win with Forest’s home drought continuing.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market |
|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal to win (Match result) |
| 2 | Both teams to score: No (Both teams to score) |
| Combined odds | 5/4 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Low (2/5)
This combination backs the same scenario as our prediction: Arsenal win without conceding. At Casumo the combined price is 5/4, shorter than Casumo’s two legs multiplied together (3/5 and 9/10, about 2/1), because an Arsenal win and a Forest blank tend to go together.
First Half: Under 1.5 first-half goals @ 4/9
Forest have not scored a home goal all season, and the last two meetings at the City Ground were both goalless at half-time and at full-time. Our predicted score has Arsenal 1-0 up at the break, which still lands this one.
⭐ Confidence Level: Medium (3/5)
Longer Shot: Arsenal to win by exactly 2 @ 7/2
Arsenal’s last away league win was 2-0 at Sunderland, and both of their wins over Forest at the Emirates came by three goals. A two-goal margin is the price of our predicted 0-2; it is a longer shot, so stakes should stay small.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (1/5)
Team News
Nottingham Forest
Nikola Milenković and Nicolò Savona are out with knee injuries and Igor Jesus is also unavailable. Daniel Muñoz started against his old club at Selhurst Park, and Ibrahim Sangaré replaced Xaver Schlager at half-time. Forest have no midweek game, so Oliver Glasner has a full week to prepare.
Predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Sels; Aina, Diomande, Murillo; Muñoz, McAtee, Schlager, N. Williams; Ndoye, Gibbs-White; Delap
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Arsenal
William Saliba (back) is back in training but missed the Leeds game, and Christos Tzolis (hamstring) is out until late October. Martín Zubimendi (knock) and Piero Hincapié (ankle) are doubts. Kai Havertz and Ezri Konsa both started against Leeds despite knocks from the international break. Arsenal host Lille on Tuesday, so some rotation is possible.
Predicted lineup (4-3-3): Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Ødegaard; Saka, Havertz, Madueke
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Recent Form
Nottingham Forest
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| L 1-3 | Crystal Palace (A) | PL |
| L 0-1 | Coventry (H) | PL |
| W 2-1 | Aston Villa (A) | PL |
| D 0-0 | Tottenham (H) | PL |
| D 2-2 | Liverpool (A) | PL |
One win in five, at Villa Park, and four of Forest’s five league goals have come away from home.
Arsenal
| Res. | Opponent | Comp. |
|---|---|---|
| W 2-1 | Leeds (H) | PL |
| L 0-3 | Brighton (A) | PL |
| W 4-2 | Ipswich (A) | EFL Cup |
| W 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | PL |
| W 1-0 | Napoli (A) | CL |
Four wins in five, with the 3-0 defeat at Brighton the only blip.
Home and Away Form
| Premier League 2026/27 | Forest at home | Arsenal away |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won | 0 | 2 |
| Drawn | 1 | 0 |
| Lost | 2 | 1 |
| Goals | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Points | 1 | 6 |
Forest’s defence has held up at home, conceding only twice, but they have not found the net. Arsenal’s away record is two clean-sheet wins and the defeat at Brighton.
The Numbers Behind the Tips
| Per match | Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (total) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| xG | 1.68 | 1.87 |
| Goals conceded | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| xG conceded | 1.28 | 0.88 |
The figures cover this Premier League season, six games each. Forest create plenty, but their five goals have come from 10.1 xG, and at home they have managed only 2.9 xG in three games. Arsenal sit top of the league for xG difference and concede the fewest chances, 5.3 xG in six games.
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Head-to-Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 17 January 2026 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (Premier League) | 0-0 |
| 13 September 2025 | Arsenal v Nottingham Forest (Premier League) | 3-0 |
| 26 February 2025 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (Premier League) | 0-0 |
| 23 November 2024 | Arsenal v Nottingham Forest (Premier League) | 3-0 |
| 30 January 2024 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (Premier League) | 1-2 |
Arsenal have won three of the last five meetings and Forest none, but the City Ground has been hard work: two goalless draws in the last two visits. Four of the five games ended with at least one side failing to score.
Premier League: Table after Matchweek 6
Arsenal are second with 15 points, three behind Manchester City, while Forest are 15th on five points, two points clear of the relegation places.
FAQs
Who is the favourite in Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
Arsenal are clear favourites at 8/15 with BetMGM. Forest are 9/2 and the draw is 3/1.
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
Our main tip is Arsenal to win at 11/20 and the value tip is both teams to score: No at 4/5. We predict a 0-2 away win.
When is Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, at the City Ground in Nottingham, in Matchweek 7 of the Premier League.
Where can I watch Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
The match is live on Sky Sports in the UK.
How did the last meeting go?
Forest and Arsenal drew 0-0 at the City Ground on 17 January 2026, the second goalless draw there in three visits.
Have Forest scored at home this season?
No. Forest have failed to score in all four of their home games in 2026/27, three in the league and one in the League Cup.
For more tips, visit our betting tips hub and our Premier League page, or read our tips for every game this week.
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