Liverpool v Manchester City: Betting Tips & Odds
Premier League, Matchday 6 | Anfield, Liverpool | Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:30 BST
Our main tip is Under 3.5 goals at 8/15. The value tip is Manchester City to win at 6/4. We predict a 2-1 win for City, who arrive at Anfield with five wins from five league games.
Key facts
- Match: Liverpool v Manchester City (Premier League, Matchday 6)
- Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:30 BST, Anfield
- Main tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 8/15
- Value tip: Manchester City to win @ 6/4
- Predicted score: Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK)
UKGC-licensed Bookmakers
Our Tips
| Tip | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Under 3.5 goals | 8/15 |
| Value Tip | Manchester City to win | 6/4 |
| Correct Score | Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City | 8/1 |
Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.
Last Week’s Tips
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 29/52 won |
| Value | 29/52 won |
| Bet Builder | 18/52 won |
| Correct Score | 8/52 won |
Win Percentage: 40.4% | ROI: -5.42%
Matchdays 3 and 4 produced eight exact correct scores between them, including Croatia 1-2 Spain, Portugal 2-1 Norway and Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia. Matchday 4 was clearly the better of the two: the main and value tips each landed in 15 of 26 matches, and in ten matches the main tip, value tip and Bet Builder all came in. Goalless draws such as Estonia 0-0 Iceland, Montenegro 0-0 Armenia and Greece 0-0 Germany dragged the numbers down.
Read our full Matchday 3 tips and Matchday 4 tips.
Results 21 August-6 October
| Tip Type | Record |
|---|---|
| Main | 153/249 won |
| Value | 130/249 won |
| Bet Builder | 86/249 won |
| Correct Score | 25/249 won |
| Correct Score | 25/249 won |
Win Percentage: 39.6% | ROI: -11.48%
This Week’s Accumulator: The Result
Matchday 3: three of five selections came in, but Malta (1-1 with Gibraltar) and Azerbaijan (0-0 with Liechtenstein) sank the accumulator. Matchday 4 made up for it: Switzerland, Albania, Spain, France and the Netherlands all won, and the accumulator landed at combined odds of about 16/5. Read the Matchday 4 accumulator here.
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How Did Our Highlight Match Go?
Croatia v England: a mixed result. The value tip (England to win) landed in style as England won 7-0 in Rijeka, but the main tip (Both teams to score) and the correct score (1-2) both missed because Croatia never found the net. Read the full tip here.
England v Czechia: a near-perfect night. England won 3-0, so the main tip (England to win), the value tip (Both teams to score: No) and the Bet Builder all landed; only the correct score (2-0) missed, by one goal. Read the full tip here.
1X2 and Main Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 33/20 |
| Draw | 14/5 |
| Manchester City | 6/4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6/4 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 8/15 |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 1/2 |
| Both teams to score – No | 29/20 |
The market can barely separate the sides, with City at 6/4, Liverpool at 33/20 and the draw at 14/5. The goals markets expect goals at both ends, but Under 3.5 at 8/15 is rated just as likely, and that is where we see the safer angle.
Value Calculator
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability | Our Estimate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 33/20 | 37.7% | 33% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 14/5 | 26.3% | 24% | -2.3% |
| Manchester City to win | 6/4 | 40.0% | 43% | +3.0% |
Market probability: Liverpool 36% | Draw 25% | Manchester City 39% (calculated from the 1X2 odds above, with the bookmaker’s margin removed).
Removing the margin is a straightforward calculation on the three prices; “our estimate” on top of that is editorial judgement based on current form, not a proprietary model. City to win is where we see the edge: they have won all five league games and the last three meetings, and Liverpool may be without two of their forwards and centre-back Jérémy Jacquet. For our main tip, Under 3.5 goals, we estimate 66% against an implied 65.8%, so it is chosen for its high probability rather than for value.
Our Tips in Detail
Main Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 8/15
- All of the last five meetings ended with four goals or fewer, and four of them with three or fewer
- Liverpool have kept clean sheets in all three of their latest Premier League games, against Ipswich Town, Fulham and Bournemouth
- Liverpool’s five league games have produced only 11 goals, an average of 2.2 per game
- Liverpool’s league games have averaged 2.88 xG in total, well under the 3.5 line
The counter-argument is City’s attack: they have scored 13 league goals, and their last league game finished 5-3 against Sunderland. That is why we prefer the 3.5 line to the 2.5 line, which would need a much tighter game. The underlying numbers add a note of caution too: City’s league games have averaged 3.54 xG in total, just above the line.
Value Tip: Manchester City to win @ 6/4
- City have won all five league games and lead the table on 15 points
- They have won the last three meetings, including 2-1 at Anfield in February
- City have won their last five matches in all competitions, scoring 14 goals and conceding three
- City have the better xG difference, +0.66 per match against Liverpool’s +0.44
The strongest argument against is Liverpool’s record under Andoni Iraola: they are unbeaten in the league and have conceded only four goals in five games. City are also without the suspended Phil Foden, with Antoine Semenyo and Nico O’Reilly doubts. At 6/4, though, City’s price still looks generous for the in-form leaders.
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Our Prediction
Correct Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City. A scenario that fits both our main tip and our value tip: a City win with three goals, which stays under 3.5.
⭐ Confidence Level: Low (2/5)
Bet Builder
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City to win | 6/4 |
| 2 | Under 3.5 goals | 8/15 |
| Combined | 3/1 |
⭐ Confidence Level Bet Builder: Medium (3/5)
This combination backs City to win a game that does not turn into a shootout. The combined price of 3/1 is slightly longer than the two legs multiplied together (about 14/5), because the bookmaker treats a City win and a game with three goals or fewer as working slightly against each other.
Team News
Liverpool
Andoni Iraola has three major doubts after the international break. Jérémy Jacquet sat out France’s win over Belgium with a left hamstring strain, which Zinedine Zidane described as slight. Alexander Isak cut short his Sweden duty with a minor thigh problem, and Cody Gakpo picked up an ankle injury with the Netherlands. Isak and Gakpo have scored five of Liverpool’s seven league goals between them. Hugo Ekitiké, Federico Chiesa, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are also out. If Jacquet misses out, Ronald Araújo or Joe Gomez are the likeliest options in central defence.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Araújo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Muñoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Manchester City
Phil Foden serves the final game of his three-match domestic ban for the red card in the Manchester derby. Erling Haaland, who came off early in Norway’s game against Portugal, is expected to be available after City gave him extra rest, and Norway’s coach described the substitution as harmless. Antoine Semenyo (ankle) and Nico O’Reilly (muscle) are doubts after picking up problems during the break, while Jérémy Doku is fit again. Off the pitch, an independent commission has found City guilty of 114 of the 115 Premier League charges against them; the club denies wrongdoing and has appealed, and no punishment has been decided.
Predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; Fernández, Anderson; Ndiaye, Cherki, Doku; Haaland
Predicted lineups are based on the latest news, current team form, injuries and suspensions, and players’ latest form.
Recent Form
Liverpool
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 1-0 | Bournemouth (A) | Premier League |
| W 3-1 | Tottenham (H) | EFL Cup |
| D 0-0 | Fulham (H) | Premier League |
| W 2-1 | Atlético Madrid (H) | Champions League |
| W 2-0 | Ipswich Town (A) | Premier League |
Liverpool are unbeaten in five, with clean sheets in all three Premier League games in that run.
Manchester City
| Result | Opponent | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| W 5-3 | Sunderland (H) | Premier League |
| W 5-0 | Norwich City (H) | EFL Cup |
| W 1-0 | Manchester United (A) | Premier League |
| W 2-0 | Porto (A) | Champions League |
| W 1-0 | Coventry City (H) | Premier League |
City have won all five, scoring 14 and conceding three, all of them in the 5-3 win over Sunderland.
Underlying Numbers
| Premier League 2026/27 | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in the sample | 5 | 5 |
| Goals per match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 1.66 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| xG against per match | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Big chances per match | 1.6 | 2.8 |
Expected goals (xG) weighs every shot by how likely it was to become a goal. The figures cover the first five Premier League matchdays for both sides. City have scored more than their chances suggest (13 from 10.5 xG) and Liverpool fewer (7 from 8.3), while both defences have conceded fewer goals than the chances they have allowed (Liverpool 4 from 6.1 xG against, City 5 from 7.2).
Liverpool v Manchester City: Head to Head
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 4 April 2026 | Manchester City v Liverpool (FA Cup quarter-final) | 4-0 |
| 8 February 2026 | Liverpool v Manchester City (Premier League) | 1-2 |
| 9 November 2025 | Manchester City v Liverpool (Premier League) | 3-0 |
| 23 February 2025 | Manchester City v Liverpool (Premier League) | 0-2 |
| 1 December 2024 | Liverpool v Manchester City (Premier League) | 2-0 |
City have won the last three meetings, including a 2-1 win at Anfield in February, while Liverpool won the two before that. Every one of the last five meetings had a winner, and both teams scored in only one of them.
Premier League: Standings after Matchday 5
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13-5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8-4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16-5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10-4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7-3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7-4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6-3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6-4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9-9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10-12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7-11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8-8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4-5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6-10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6-11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4-9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6-8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1-10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5-8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | -6 | 2 |
After five games, Manchester City lead on 15 points and Liverpool are sixth on 9, so a City win would put them nine points clear of Liverpool. Liverpool are one of five sides still unbeaten in the league, alongside City, Brentford, Leeds and Everton.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Manchester City?
Manchester City are narrow favourites at 6/4, with Liverpool at 33/20 and the draw at 14/5.
What is the prediction for Liverpool v Manchester City?
Our main tip is Under 3.5 goals at 8/15. The value tip is Manchester City to win. We predict a 2-1 win for City.
When is Liverpool v Manchester City?
Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, at Anfield in Liverpool, in Matchday 6 of the Premier League.
Where can I watch Liverpool v Manchester City?
The match is live on Sky Sports in the UK, and you can also stream it with a NOW Sports membership.
What is at stake in the table?
City lead the Premier League on 15 points after five games and Liverpool are sixth on 9, so a City win would open a nine-point gap between the sides.
Who has the better recent head-to-head record?
Manchester City have won the last three meetings, including 4-0 in the FA Cup quarter-final in April. Liverpool won the two meetings before that, both 2-0.
For more betting tips, visit our betting tips hub and our Premier League betting page, or read our Nations League Matchday 4 tips.
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